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The Portfolio That Was Built Not to Lose
What happens when you build a portfolio around the single goal of never hurting, and then let 15 years of markets judge it?
The Idea
Most portfolios are built to win. This one was built to not lose.
The recipe is simple. Take 4 ETFs and give each 25%:
- USMV, the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF
- SPLV, the S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF
- TLT, long-term Treasury bonds
- GLD, gold
Rebalance on the last trading day of every month. Charge 0.03% fees plus 0.03% slippage on every dollar traded. Start with $100,000 on October 20, 2011, the first day all four funds had a price, and run it to October 19, 2026.
It is just a bet that boring stocks, long bonds and gold should be able to cover for each other.
I also set 3 rivals against it: SPY 100%, a classic 60/40 (SPY/IEF), and a Low-vol stocks only portfolio (USMV and SPLV, 50/50). The last one is there for an honest reason. USMV and SPLV are both low-volatility US stock funds, so half of my “diversified” portfolio is really one asset class. I wanted to see what TLT and GLD actually added.
