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You Have No Idea How Close the AI Bubble Is to Popping
The signs have aligned
The AI industry has been unusually nervous this week. I’d like to claim credit for that but it was The Financial Times that got hold of Anthropic’s quarterly revenue figures from a private investor meeting: the company is making an obscene amount of money, growing at an obscene rate, and yet investors are panicking.
Anthropic has realized that if you promise the stars the Moon won’t suffice.
But let’s hear the numbers first.
$16+ billion revenue in a single quarter and 46% QoQ growth. Holy. Both figures are unprecedented for such a young company at this stage. Together, they might be unprecedented in history (maybe Apple). Not to mention the reported ~$74B in run-rate revenue. Anthropic is a beast of a business; not even OpenAI is that high.
What’s the problem then? Why are investors complaining about the GOAT? Because everything is unprecedented in AI, and so “unprecedented revenue” is not enough.
By the way, TickerTrends nailed it in the chart below. I did, too: “It only takes some finite amount of time to turn a prideful exponential into a disappointing sigmoid.”
What do you mean you are growing only 46% QoQ? It was 145% last quarter! What do you mean your…
