Italy’s Dumbest Football Club
2025 summer mercato analysis — Part 6: Fiorentina
Preface:
This is the sixth part of my series analyzing the off-season of the top clubs in Serie A, and for those who have not yet read any of the previous parts, I want to clarify how I’m going to go about this — especially since this article is quite vast. It will have the same structure as previous editions of this series, but more explicit this time; it will be divided into four parts. The first part will contextualize Fiorentina’s current situation and their circumstances going into not only this summer, but also the future. The second part will go through more or less the entirety of their squad, briefly discussing each player and making a call on their fate this summer; whether they will stay, leave or go out on loan. Then, the third part will discuss the signings Fiorentina already have made this summer, as well as some of the signings they could make. As for how I’m going about projecting their ins and outs, the basis of it is admittedly a bit vague, but let’s call it a mix of what I think Fiorentina will do and what I think they should do, with a slight priority to the former. Finally, there will be a brief conclusion, with a showcasing of how Fiorentina’s depth chart could look next season, and some closing thoughts. If I had to estimate, the first three parts are not dramatically different in terms of length, so if you want you can choose to just read one or two of them, as opposed to the whole “article” — if you can call it that, I’m going to call it that because I don’t know what else to call it.
Part 1: Situational analysis
Let me open this up by making a statement that you’re not going to agree with: if Fiorentina were in the right hands, they would have reasonable long-term scudetto ambitions right now. Now, if that is true, consider that Fiorentina haven’t won the scudetto since 1969. Consider also some of the things that have happened to them since then. Most notably, there is the 1982 scudetto, which was stolen from them by Juventus on the last day — as juvenile as that narrative sounds, it’s hard not to sympathize with if you’ve seen the refereeing decisions that were made that day. To make matters worse, Fiorentina would lose to Juventus in the UEFA Cup final eight years later, and their best player ever, Roberto Baggio, would subsequently move to none other Juventus. Just a few years later, Fiorentina were relegated to Serie B for the first time in 54 years. Right at the end of that decade, Fiorentina would finish third in Serie A after spending 20 of the first 21 matchdays on top of that. After a few years, Gabriel Batistuta would depart to Roma, where he immediately won the scudetto, whereas Fiorentina would go bankrupt and restart from Lega Pro just a couple years later. Then, in modern times, we’ve seen Chiesa to Juventus, Bernardeschi to Juventus, and Dušan Vlahović to Juventus. We’ve seen, three cup finals lost in two years. And it is first at this point that we approach Fiorentina in the present, and if you ask me things still look quite bleak. Of course, this could partly be in reference to some of the incidents that have affected Fiorentina negatively without really pertainining to the pitch, but I sincerely don’t feel right including those as part of some narrative about the misfortunes of this club — especially with the title of this article being what it is. There is life and then there is the game, and today I primarily want to talk about the game. Although this article will have a largely critical tone, my intention is not to scold nor mock Fiorentina here, because what they really deserve is a great deal of sympathy. And as far as that is concerned, the more human struggles that the club has endured in modern times are obviously impossible to ignore. Still, I want to emphasize that I don’t even think Fiorentina themselves have any idea of how high their potential is, in fact it didn’t dawn on me until recently. It’s not hard to see why. Italian football is deeply hegemonic and almost completely lacks class mobility, which means a good season for Fiorentina means finishing sixth, a bad season means finishing ninth or tenth, while nothing outside of that is expected particularly often. The dream scenario is a cup win or a return to the Champions League, but a scudetto? That’s probably never going to happen, right? I get it, I had this perspective too, and I’m also not saying that Fiorentina are anywhere near a scudetto right now, nor am I saying that it should be easy for them to win one eventually, but when I assess what they have at their disposal right now, I think it’s reasonable to say that a scudetto would be a realistic long-term ambition for them if they were backed up by a serious sporting regime. Sure enough, that is exactly what they’re lacking. It’s not really that they underestimate themselves, it’s just that the way they’re run is very uninspiring. In any case, up to this point I’ve danced around the reason why I think Fiorentina are so enticing, and the truth is that there are a number of reasons why I think so, but it all starts with the academy.
The best youth sector in Italian football?
Indeed, it is Fiorentina’s excellent youth sector that best illustrates the contrast between the potential of the club and their actual direction. Even historically, Fiorentina’s youth sector is a relatively prestigious one, but I think it’s now that it’s really starting to establish itself as one of the elite ones in Italian football — perhaps the best one, in fact. The first sign of this is the sheer amount of professionals they are producing; teenagers that have already gotten their first bit of senior experience in Serie B or Serie A. A topic we will soon get to is actually one of Fiorentina’s current problems: their squad is ridiculously bloated. Admittedly this is in part due to their youth sector. Among the homegrown Fiorentina loanees last season were Niccolò Fortini, Filippo Distefano, Costatino Favasuli, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Lorenzo Amatucci, Davide Gentile and Alessandro Bianco. Other academy products likely to go out on loan and get their first taste of professional football next season then include Tommaso Martinelli, Tommaso Vannucchi, Tommaso Rubino, Jonas Harder and Maat Daniel Caprini. One of the first reasons why this matters for Fiorentina is a more cynical one: if nothing else, it is financially beneficial for Fiorentina. We will revisit this point later, but while Fiorentina are naturally unable to spend as much as the elite clubs in the country, having a youth sector that pushes out so many professionals will at least help bridge the gap somewhat by increasing liquidity — all of Fiorentina’s best youth products might not have a future at the club, but the ones that don’t can likely be sold for what should amount to some pretty meaningful figures.
Beyond that, Fiorentina are also producing an increasing amount of players that are highly intriguing even for themselves. For instance, Alessandro Bianco is probably the most underrated player in Serie A in my eyes — an exceptionally technically gifted regista who is looking increasingly solid in the defensive phase. Although he still needs some tactical coaching and experience, I don’t see what makes him a significantly worse player than someone like Stanislav Lobotka. Similarly, Lorenzo Amatucci is another highly intriguing regista prospect who has looked exceptional in Serie B. Of course, Serie B is Serie B, but when Inter’s Pio Esposito dominates in Serie B he’s perceived by both the media and the club as a potential cornerstone of the club for years to come, so what makes Amatucci so different? Moving on, there’s also Michael Kayode, who broke into the first team at the age of 19 in 2023–24, established himself as a starter, but was later ignored when Raffaele Palladino became the new head coach, subsequently moving to Brentford last January. Then there’s Pietro Comuzzo, who had a similar season to that of Kayode’s debut one last year — hopefully he will be able to build on that instead of being mysteriously ostracized. The more I watch Comuzzo play, the more I am convinced that he isn’t just an early bloomer with a low ceiling, but rather a truly unique defender prospect with a modern skillset. Meanwhile, if we go back to the loanees, Niccolò Fortini has not attracted interest from the likes of Milan, Juventus and Bayer Leverkusen for no reason. Fortini is a lockdown full-back with the ball-carrying and dribbling talent of a winger — long, powerful strides, yet a low center of gravity and excellent ball control. While he can still become more concrete in the final third, there’s plenty of promise around Fortini’s game, and he only just turned 19 earlier this year. Moving on, Tommaso Rubino might very well be a bigger talent than all of the players mentioned above. Then, you also havr the likes of Tommaso Martinelli, Tommaso Vannucchi and Jonas Harder from the primavera — all of these players could have a future at Fiorentina, even if they’re yet to prove themselves at the senior level. Of course, these are also just the homegrown Fiorentina players that are interesting right now, but there are likely many more to come in the future. Suffice to say, Fiorentina currently have something that isn’t quite normal for a club with such low competitive expectations. Most see Fiorentina as being firmly beneath not only Italy’s big three, but also Napoli, Roma and even Atalanta. Still, Fiorentina’s youth sector alone makes them a club that is rich in assets — perhaps not quite to the same extent as the clubs above, but I’m not sure I think they belong in a tier below all of them either. Fiorentina have plenty of players that can either be sold and reinvested in interesting first team players, or which can become bedrocks of the team; capable of saving them from eternally competing in the Europa Conference League at the very least. Indeed, it should be emphasized that many of the talents we’re talking about here aren’t just shaping out to be good Serie A players, but potential league-leading once — at least relative to their respective roles. Those players don’t grow on trees — well, not outside Tuscany anyway.
The first team — a mess and a massive pool of untapped potential
Now, what really solidifies Fiorentina as a club that should be doing more than qualifying for the Europa Conference League, is their current squad. And really the points here are the same as with their youth sector. What Fiorentina have no shortage of is intriguing first team players. Those players may not all be performing at a high level for Fiorentina, but at some point over the last year or two they have showed potential that is not easily ignored. These players can either be developed or platformed into important players for Fiorentina, or they can be sold — and let me tell you, a lot of them will be sold. Once more, Fiorentina have a ton of players, and this is largely a reflection of their frankly terrible squad-building — it is here that we first get to what Fiorentina are doing wrong as an organization. Still, while Fiorentina effectively have a lot of deadwood, this issue is a double-edged sword, because it also means that they have the liquidity to spend quite a meaningful amount of money — more than you would expect, perhaps. In fact, even looking beyond total expenditure, Fiorentina had an impressive net spend of €-31.97m last summer (via Transfermarkt). It is partly this which made Fiorentina’s last season extremely underwhelming in my opinion, and here too I think they are vastly misunderstood.
When Vincenzo Italiano had been the Fiorentina coach, he had become increasingly scapegoated for the team’s stagnation in results and performances, as well as Fiorentina losing those three cup finals in two years. In my opinion, it was really Fiorentina’s management that was responsible for the club’s lack of positive direction. After all, they were the ones who were seemingly allergic to giving Italiano any intriguing talents, while they also inevitably felt the need to let go of some of their best players as time went on. Of course, it is also classic fallacy to lament over lost cup finals, as if it’s not an achievement to get to the final in the first place, and as though exiting out of the cup at an earlier stage is preferable. In any case, Italiano would leave Fiorentina last summer, he would be replaced by Raffaele Palladino, and at that point the club was suddenly in the mood to spend and bring in relatively reputable players. On the surface, they seemed to have been rewarded with a sixth place finish in Serie A — their best league placement since 2015–16 — but I think this really overshadows their poor level of performances, which saw most of their new signings fail to make a positive impact. Looking at some of the underlying numbers, Fiorentina ranked ninth in expected goal difference — closer to 10th than eighth at that (via FBref). Both Understat and Opta Analyst then essentially told the same story with their respective interpretations of expected points. Moreover, Fiorentina’s xGD (via FBref once more) excluding penalties ranked 10th in Serie A — slightly closer to ninth than 11th. Overall, it was a team that largely lacked an identity, and which failed to utilize the vast majority of its players in an interesting or constructive way. In fairness to Raffaele Palladino, it was not entirely his fault — Fiorentina’s squad-building had been truly puzzling, and his inability to make much of the talent at his disposal was also an indictment on Fiorentina’s management for having chosen him in the first place.
According to Transfermarkt, Marin Pongračić was Fiorentina’s most expensive signing last summer, having been brought in after a very promising year as a starter at Lecce. Unfortunately, Palladino never seemed like a huge fan of Pongračić, as he ended last season with just 14.4 90s in Serie A — not primarily due to injury issues either. Then, one of Fiorentina’s most exciting signings of the summer at the time was Amir Richardson. Son of former NBA player Micheal Ray Richardson, Amir was a 1.97 m tall midfielder who had displayed shockingly good technique and a final third edge in Ligue 1 the previous season. Still, that talent was hardly even flashed in Florence, as the then-22-year old only amassed 11.4 90s in Serie A last season. Partly as a result of Richardson’s lack of success, Cher Ndour was a surprising addition to Fiorentina in January, certainly not making the squad any less bloated. It was a move that saw Fiorentina bet on a 20-year old who was still yet to really show anything at the senior level, having just come off of an underwhelming loan spell at Beşiktaş — not the best sign necessarily. Sure enough, Ndour would fail to make any sort of lasting impression in his first half-season at Fiorentina, with Palladino getting very little out of him. Meanwhile, Matías Moreno was a more inspiring signing on paper. Although he lacked significant senior experience, Moreno was a gifted, soon-to-be 21-year old defender coming out of Argentina — a fun prospect to bet on Fiorentina. However, although he showed quality in the Europa Conference League, Moreno would play just 1.6 90s in Serie A last season, and he now looks set to depart the club. Moving on, there’s also Andrea Colpani, who was one of Fiorentina’s many signings that arrived on a loan with option to buy last season. Despite having had his Serie A breakout under Palladino’s wing at Monza, Colpani picked up just three goal contributions in Serie A for Fiorentina last year, and is now back at Monza in Serie B. Moving on to a relatively similar profile, Nicolò Zaniolo was brought in on a loan with option to buy in January. Atalanta, who have successfully revived the careers of a number of players in recent years, had failed to get any positive results out of Zaniolo, and would cut his loan tenure at the club short around the halfway point of the season. This should have been a sign for Fiorentina. Although Zaniolo was once a phenomenal talent and even grew up in Fiorentina’s youth sector, by now he is no longer even a shadow of his former self. He didn’t score a goal for Fiorentina last season, and he didn’t assist one.
Another uninspiring January signing was Pablo Marí, a more or less average 31-year old defender (32 in August), who did, however, have previous experience playing under Palladino. While Marí did see a good bit of playing time at Fiorentina last season, he didn’t show anyone anything new, and meanwhile Fiorentina’s squad has gotten all the more bloated with his arrival. Circling back to the summer, Yacine Adli was one of a few midfielders who was signed on a loan with option to buy, arriving in Florence after a highly intriguing 2023–24 campaign at Milan — not intriguing enough for Milan to keep him, in fairness. Despite a very strong start to the season with Fiorentina, Adli abruptly became glued to the bench, and would end the season with just 13.5 90s in Serie A. As Adli’s role had been diminished, Michael Folorunsho would be brought in on a loan with option to buy in January. Quite frankly, Folorunsho is a player I’ve never really seen anything in, and he didn’t show me anything new at Fiorentina either. Now, Folorunsho is back at Napoli, and could be sold in the coming weeks. As for the other summer signings, Robin Gosens was perceived as a success at Fiorentina, but personally I just don’t see it with him. Gosens struggled in buildup and in the defensive phase — normal for a wing-back, in fairness, but his 10 non-penalty goal contributions in Serie A were also a major overperformance of his npxG+xAG of 4.1. In fact, Gosens’ npxG+xAG per 90 ranks in the 54th percentile among full-backs over the last year (via FBref). Somewhat similarly, David De Gea was recruited as Fiorentina’s new starting goalkeeper last summer, despite having spent the previous year as a free agent. Although De Gea was widely praised for his season with Fiorentina, I will make myself clear here: I think he was just as bad as always. He was a disaster on the ball and defending crosses, he was a non-factor coming off of his line, and he was ultimately even a very mixed shot-stopper — on that end, De Gea ended up ranking in just the 43rd percentile for post-shot expected goals - goals conceded per 90 (via FBref). Furthermore, a 30-year old Danilo Cataldi was brought in on loan with option to buy last summer, but after a good start to the season he would hit a plateau, and now he’s back at Lazio. Then there’s Nicolás Valentini, a 24-year old center-back from Boca Juniors who was brought in on a free transfer, only to be loaned out to Hellas Verona immediately.
Be it through poor scouting, poor coaching, or both, it’s suffice to say Fiorentina made a lot of underwhelming signings last summer. So, where is the positive spin to all of this? Well, first of all, it is worth pointing out that, as far as Fiorentina’s potential goes, they could do a lot more with the resources they have at their disposal. In that case, the difference in results would be even more dramatic if they also had a good coach on top of a competent management that excelled at recruitment and squad-building. That aside, as our squad review will later confirm, Fiorentina’s squad is made up of so much deadwood that the potential economic return is quite significant — in turn, this can be reinvested in the team, of course. More importantly, though, we shouldn’t ignore the successful signings that Fiorentina have made over the last year or so. First of all, I think Edoardo Bove is at least worthy of a mention, as he had enjoyed a strong start to the season before his shocking collapse against Inter — it’s a terrible story all around, with no silver lining other than the fact that he did thankfully survive. In any case, what I’m getting to is that Fiorentina do have plenty of really talented players in their squad right now — much more so than their level of performances would suggest. The crown jewel, of course, is Moise Kean. After a goalless season at Juventus, Kean would move to Fiorentina (of all teams) and establish himself as perhaps the best striker in Serie A — he would get my vote for what it’s worth. The value of having a player of that caliber in such an important position just cannot be understated — it’s something Fiorentina need to exploit, although admittedly it’s not exclusively up to them to keep Kean at the club. Beyond Kean, though, another foolishly neglected Juventus talent has arrived in Florence in the last year — namely Nicolò Fagioli. As much as he had a positive half-season at Fiorentina following his arrival in January this year, I think Fagioli is capable of so, so much more — his playmaking at Fiorentina was exceptional, but in a team that struggled in the buildup phase, he was only able to show flashes of his phenomenal ability in possession. I truly believe that Fagioli is one of the best/better midfielders in Serie A, and I think he will show it as soon as he finds himself within the right context. So, the way I see it, Fiorentina have two of the best/better players in all of Serie A, they have respectable spending power, they might very well have the best youth sector — including a number of players who have everything it starts for Fiorentina — and I still think they have a number of players who have been given a chance at the club, but are yet to show what they’re really worth.
The prime example of Fiorentina’s untapped potential is Albert Guðmundsson, who had a disappointing debut season in Florence, but who has nonetheless been brought back on a permanent basis after what was initially a loan spell at the club. In buildup, I think Guðmundsson is one of the most technically refined and advanced players in Italian football, which in turn makes him a valuable player even if he never explodes as a final third threat. Aside from more consistent contribution in precisely that area, I don’t think you can ask for much more from a false nine than what you will get from Albert Guðmundsson — he is a great player, and under the right conditions he will show it. While I can’t quite make the same case for a player like Marin Pongračić, he is another player who I think is much, much more than the dud he may have appeared as in his first season at Fiorentina — what does he do so much worse than someone like Sam Beukema, who is about to earn a €>30m move to the champions of Italy? Even Nicolás Valentini and Matías Moreno are worth giving a chance in my opinion — there is talent there, and a good developmental coach could cultivate it. Indeed, there is a lot of talent at Fiorentina as a whole; their squad full of value — both practical and financial. As referenced, Fiorentina should reasonably also have the resources needed to recruit intriguing players within the age range of 18-25. In turn, they should also have the mere prestige necessary to hire a coach capable of nurturing and enhancing these players — in addition to the players Fiorentina already have. I think all the conditions are there for Fiorentina to have an enticing, youthful project. It’s just such a shame that the club instead specializes in mediocrity.
Let’s talk Stefano Pioli… but not too much
Stefano Pioli will be the new Fiorentina coach, and he is probably the football coach whom I have written the most about in my life, and perhaps also the one I have criticized the most. There is a lot to unpack as far as his career goes, but how much of it is of relevance here? It’s a valid question, but I guess we can start here: if a youth-centered project is the direction Fiorentina should head in, this is probably not a good appointment. In addition to that, I have to have my doubts on whether or not Pioli can even achieve good results with Fiorentina. I am afraid that Pioli’s last few years at Milan have left me with an excessively nasty aftertaste, but I also know what I saw during those years. Fiorentina’s hope will certainly be that the Stefano Pioli they will get is the one Milan had prior to the 2022 World Cup, and not the one they had after — but are they really any different from each other? This is what makes Pioli such a complicated coach to evaluate — his tenures tend to start strong, and then completely implode, so which is real? Even at Milan, it is worth noting that the underlying numbers were in contrast to the results for much of even his more successful years, but it was indeed after the 2022 World Cup that the shit really hit the fan. Injury crises, frantic performances, poor results; suffering players, suffering fans. Specifically, Milan endured a historically poor roughly month-long stretch following the World Cup — plagued by both injuries and horrific results — and even though they eventually woke up from this nightmare, they would never really be the same again. For starters, Milan won just the seventh most points in Serie A over a sample size of 23 games following the World Cup, and they ranked fifth in expected points over that span (via Understat) — mind you, these were the reigning champions of Italy. While the results the season after that would be more or less acceptable, Milan would rank just fourth in xGD (via FBref) and third in xPTS (marginally above fifth — via Understat), despite having made considerable investments in the squad over the previous summer. Meanwhile, they failed to qualify to the round of 16 of the Champions League and would be knocked out of the Europa League by Roma, also being knocked out of the Coppa Italia by Atalanta. As such, this was a highly uncompetitive Milan that didn’t come close to winning anything, which made it all the more concerning that the player development and platforming continued to be a disaster. Virtually no player was playing up to their potential within the context of Pioli’s team, and most of the squad was suffering — the young players especially. 21-year old Filippo Terracciano was never even given a chance after being brought in in January. 20/21-year old Yunus Musah was consistently misprofiled and seemingly not developed whatsoever. 22-year old Malick Thiaw was constantly left exposed by Pioli’s dysfunctional press, and thus struggled immensely. Many players also faced issues due to injuries, never reaching their peak physical level, as well as poor integration into the team — all likely issues that began on the training ground. These issues partly plagued Malick Thiaw and Filippo Terracciano once more, but also Marco Pellegrino, Pierre Kalulu, Ismaël Bennacer and even Ruben Loftus-Cheek to an extent.
So, those were some of Milan’s issues under Pioli following the World Cup — chaotic performances, poor utilization of players, constant injuries and poor physical levels, lack of player-/youth development. However, the truth is that these problems didn’t appear out of thin air. In fact, we can already see this when we look at the 2022–23 season prior to the World Cup. Most notably, we are talking about the mistreatment of marquee signing Charles De Ketelaere. He wasn’t properly integrated into the team, once he did get a chance he didn’t look like he was in top shape, he was misused tactically, and when he struggled as a result he was eventually sent to the bench, more or less for good. He wasn’t the first ambitious young signing of Milan’s that had struggled early on under Pioli either. Sandro Tonali’s debut season at the club was also highly underwhelming, as he struggled to even get on the pitch, and it took Rafael Leão until his third season at Milan to even become a primary starter at the club. It is worth noting that those were players that eventually hit the ground running at Milan, and Milan would even gain the reputation as having a very successful youth-centered project — in fact their 2021–22 scudetto-winning team remains the youngest to ever do so. Still, it should also be emphasized that Sandro Tonali never reached his potential at Milan, and Rafael Leão certainly didn’t either, in fact it’s quite shocking that it took so long for such an extraordinary talent to establish himself at Milan at all. Simultaneously, there were a good amount of people that would have liked for Milan to move on from Pioli after the 2020–21 season on account of poor performances and a shocking second half of the season —one in which Milan ranked fifth in the league table and sixth in xPTS (via Understat). Notably, Milan were a team that consistently seemed to lack a coherent identity throughout the majority of Pioli’s time at the club; they were not defensively solid or tough to break down, but they also weren’t particularly fear-inducing in attack, in fact they often played rather unattractive football.
So, to conclude my thoughts on this hire for Fiorentina, I think it’s also worth referencing Pioli’s previous stint at the club, which ended with with him being sacked — I’m sorry, but is virtually always the case. Pioli’s first season at the club was respectable, with Fiorentina finishing eighth, but after matchday 24 of his second season he would be fired, as the club had picked up four points from its last seven games, subsequently sitting 10th in the league table. Once more, it was a story of an amalgamation of anarchic performances and ruthless injury crises — of course, this wasn’t the first time this had occurred to a Pioli-led team, nor would it be the last. To be sincere as well as charitable, Pioli showed enough at Milan for me not to exclude the possibility of him achieving good results with Fiorentina, but even in that scenario — which I would bet against actually coming into fruition — I don’t see how it won’t end on a negative note. In fact, Pioli even failed at his last job at Al Nassr, so what do you want me to say? I think this move is in line with the general incompetence of Fiorentina, and it certainly isn’t in line with what this club should be doing in order to reach its potential.
How will Pioli’s Fiorentina play?
As much as I try to zoom out and analyze the greater situation of these clubs in these articles, it’s easy to get carried away and lose track of the original purpose of them, which is to analyze what these clubs can/should/might/will do in the summer. On that note, it is worth discussing how Stefano Pioli might approach next season tactically — I think this is especially interesting due to the players Fiorentina have at their disposal. Now, as for the lackluster player development, the injuries and the bad endings/volatility, these are issues that have been consistent in Pioli’s career. However, as for the chaotic, defensively disastrous performances we saw at Milan (and partly elsewhere, to be fair), I’m not as sure if this will translate to Fiorentina. We will soon review Fiorentina’s squad to determine who will stay and who will leave — as well as discussing some players a bit more — but I think it’s worth starting to discuss some of them here. Maybe it starts from the bottom? That is, with the man in goal. One of the most frustrating aspects of Pioli’s Milan was that it often pressed both very high and very aggressively, but didn’t really gain much from — you got all the defensive repercussions, but you didn’t really get the offensive rewards. It might then be a good thing that it will be difficult for Stefano Pioli to set up in a similar manner at Fiorentina, considering David De Gea will be his starting goalkeeper — that is, a goalkeeper who struggles to come off his line, and who is poor on the ball. As alluded to, this is why I’m extremely critical of De Gea as a player. People say goalkeepers are primarily supposed to stop shots — “it’s in the name” — but do you really want a goalkeeper who single-handedly limits the ways in which you can play, all because he sporadically bails you out when you have defended poorly and conceded a big chance? At the very least, do you not see the problem with such a player? In De Gea’s case, he hasn’t even been much of a positive shot-stopper in quite a while anyway — again, his PSxG-GA (i.e. expected goals conceded subtracted by goals conceded) per 90 ranks in the 43rd percentile over the last year (via FBref). In any case, it could once more be a good thing that Pioli might be “forced” into taking a less aggressive approach, but are we sure that a more conservative approach would yield superior results? Well, it’s not like we’ve never seen Pioli go more conservative before.
The crisis that Milan endured following the 2022 World Cup has been referenced in this article, but has not been accounted for in detail. The red flags arose as early as the preparative friendlies prior to the continuation of club football following the World Cup. First Milan lost 2-1 to Arsenal, which was no big deal, but then they lost 4-1 to Liverpool and 3-0 to PSV — seven conceded goals in two games, that is. Milan would beat Salernitana 2-1 in their first competitive game back from the World Cup, but a week later they would draw to Roma at the San Siro despite still being 2-0 up after 86 minutes. In the following game, they would lose 1-0 to Torino in the Coppa Italia, at the San Siro. In their next league game, they would go 2-0 down to Lecce within 23 minutes, although they later recovered to at least get a point from that game. A few days later they would face Inter in the Supercoppa, losing 3-0. That was followed by a 4-0 battering against Lazio at the Olimpico, and then, most shockingly, Milan would go 5-1 down to Sassuolo at the San Siro, before scoring a consolation goal from a long shot in the 81st minute. So, in six competitive games, Milan had gone 0–2–4, scoring seven goals, conceding 17 goals. 17 goals conceded in six games, that is. After this hellish stretch, Milan were up against Inter once more — this time in the elague — and this is where we get to the more conservative version of Stefano Pioli. Pioli would transition from a 4–2–3–1 to a 3–5–2 for this game, and a very defensive 3–5–2 at that. Unfortunately it is anecdotally that I have to tell you that Milan practically didn’t show up to play in the first half. Indeed, I couldn’t find any stats that showed how the possession was distributed between these teams for the first X minutes of this game, but I guess you can keep in mind that Milan would concede in the 34th minute, would become significantly more aggressive in the second half especially, and yet they ended up with 36% possession on the game as a whole. Oh, and they did also lose 1-0 in the end.
A more positive trend did develop in the aftermath of this derby, however. First, Milan’s first win in over a month would arrive against Ivan Jurić’s Torino — an unconvincing win, but a win nonetheless. A few days later, Milan would secure a 1-0 win against Antonio Conte’s Tottenham at the San Siro, in the first leg of Milan’s Champions League tie in the round of 16. Then, a 1-0 win away to none other than Raffaele Palladino’s Monza — back when it was actually quite good. In the next game, Milan would beat Gian Piero Gasperini (had to mention him at least once!) and his Atalanta 2-0 at the San Siro, in what was a very solid display. That would be where the magic of Milan’s back-three ran out, however. In their following game, they would lose 2-1 to Fiorentina, with Milan’s only goal practically coming with the last kick of the game. Although Pioli’s Milan likely “deserved” a win in the second leg against Tottenham in the Champions League, they would draw that game 0-0, and in the next game it similarly wasn’t much consolation that they probably “should” have beaten Salernitana at the San Siro — they didn’t, and that was bad enough. When Milan then lost 3-1 to Udinese in the following game, the back-three experiment was officially over.
Now, there were obviously other games in Pioli’s tenure at Milan in which he took a more conservative approach, but I think the shortlived back-three era in 2023 is the best point of reference for Fiorentina. Just because Fiorentina have De Gea in goal doesn’t mean they will set up the way Milan did in the first half in that league game against Inter every week. Additionally, the back-three is an important detail here, because I do think it is what Pioli will set up with at Fiorentina. Last season, Palladino initially opted towards a 4–2–3–1, but as the season progressed he would eventually return to his traditionally preferred back-three. With the players he had at his disposal, this move was hardly surprising — Fiorentina still have a lot of defenders, a lot of midfielders, at least a couple more offensively minded full-backs, and hardly any wingers. Some of the players Fiorentina have been linked with also suggest that their squad will continue to look this way. So, what can we expect from a Pioli-led back-three team at Fiorentina that doesn’t press as high? Well, clearly his results were very mixed when he used a similar setup at Milan, and all in all I think the issue is that Stefano Pioli just is not a very good coach when it comes to the out-of-possession phase. Compactness, specifically, is something that he has consistently struggled to achieve. When he won the scudetto in 2021–22, he largely did so by Milan taking an enormous defensive leap in the second half of the season, but that was in the form of an aggressive press that became incredibly successful due to exceptional individual performances out of possession — from the likes of Kalulu, Tomori, Kessié, Bennacer, Tonali, and even Theo Hernández. While Milan’s back-three period in 2023 saw them become a lot more lukewarm in attack and more stable in defense, they still had their defensive struggles — most notably against Fiorentina and Udinese. On that note, I think Fiorentina could continue to look somewhat similar to how they looked last season. To give you some numbers, Palladino’s Fiorentina ranked 16th in Serie A for passes allowed per defensive action last season (via Understat). As such, they clearly had a more reactive defensive approach than a proactive one, and while it should be said that Pioli’s Milan remained relatively aggressive even when they had a back-three, it should still be noted that that was with Mike Maignan in goal. Despite this approach from Fiorentina, they did also rank just ninth in expected goals against (via FBref). In any case, if we look beyond whether or not Pioli is a good fit with Fiorentina, I do think it will be interesting to see how his team will look next season, because I would almost be surprised if it didn’t look dramatically different from how his Milan looked — even if you account for the difference in player quality.
Part 2: Squad review — Stay/Leave/Loan
- David De Gea: Stay
I have already explained why I wasn’t impressed by David De Gea’s last season at Fiorentina, but the club sees him as a key player and thus extended his contract until 2028. To be as smug as I possibly can be, I think the fact that Fiorentina rate De Gea so highly in the year of 2025 is quite telling. - Pietro Terracciano: Leave (€500k)
It appears as though this could be the summer when Pietro Terracciano finally leaves Fiorentina, although he could reasonably also stay as a backup until next year, when his contract expires. - Tommaso Martinelli: Loan
Very little new to add here, Tommaso Martinelli should get his first meaningful bit of senior experience with a loan move to Serie B this summer — Spezia are supposedly one of the main suitors. - Tommaso Vannucchi: Loan
One of the top-performing goalkeepers in the Campionato Primavera 1 last season, Tommaso Vannucchi is likely too good not to play against professionals next season. - Pietro Comuzzo: Stay
There were reports that Pietro Comuzzo could be on his way to Napoli in quite a lucrative deal earlier this year, and at the time I essentially thought Fiorentina should’ve taken the money and run. However, since then Comuzzo has extended his contract at the club, and as hinted at I have watched more of him, subsequently being left very pleasantly surprised. Comuzzo can easily appear as a highly one-dimensional, technically underwhelming defender, but I think he has shown meaningful flashes of good ball manipulation, ball carrying and passing range. Is Stefano Pioli the right coach to develop him in these areas, though? I’m not so sure. - Matías Moreno: Leave (loan with €15m option to buy)
The bad news is Fiorentina seem to be on the verge of letting go an exciting young talent before even having given him a proper chance. The good news is there’s a good chance they make a sizeable profit off of him, with a loan deal similar to the one listed above reportedly being close to done. - Marin Pongračić: Stay
As alluded to, I like Marin Pongračić more than most — he may not be the most physically imposing, but I do think he’s very composed, refined and intelligent, and I honestly don’t exclude that he could have a bounce-back year even under Stefano Pioli. - Pablo Marí: Stay
For reasons already discussed, I was very underwhelmed by this signing. It should be noted that Pablo Marí was very cheap for Fiorentina, but that doesn’t change that he takes up space in the squad that would be better used for a promising young player — like Matías Moreno, for example. - Luca Ranieri: Stay
With all due respect to Luca Ranieri, I am quite shocked that he is one of the few academy products that Fiorentina have really bought into, in fact by now he is about as solidified as a starter as anyone else at the club, and I sincerely do not understand why. Maybe that says more about me than it says about Ranieri — I don’t know. - Dodô: Stay
Beyond the likes of Moise Kean and Nicolò Fagioli, I also recognize Dodô as one of a few seriously talented players at Fiorentina. It took a while for Dodô to establish himself at the club, and he’s not flawless, but a player with his skillset could absolutely excel in a possession-based team. Unfortunately, a player with his defensive flaws could instead struggle quite a bit under a coach like Stefano Pioli. - Robin Gosens: Stay
Robin Gosens’ best days are clearly behind him, but as explained earlier in this article I’m not even convinced that he remains even a useful player. For such a specialized player, you would like Robin Gosens to be a good bit better at what he’s supposed to specialize in. I see Robin Gosens as a liability at Fiorentina, and I don’t say that as an insult, I really just think it’s true. That said, I can imagine that he will remain a starter this season — he’s the proven guy. - Fabiano Parisi: Leave (€5m)
Fabiano Parisi’s time at Fiorentina has been a mixed bag, but perhaps more negative than positive if you had to call it one way or the other. I do still believe he’s an interesting player, but I wouldn’t blame Fiorentina for giving up on him. - Danilo Cataldi: Leave (expiring loan)
As discussed, Danilo Cataldi will not return to Fiorentina after his loan tenure at the club, although it really seemed like he would for some time. - Yacine Adli: Leave (expiring loan)
It’s hard for me not to sympathize with Yacine Adli. He used to be a player I was a big fan of, and even as it became clear to me that he had some significant flaws, he remained a player that I was rooting for, and I really didn’t think Fiorentina was above his level or anything. When he played, I even think Adli’s performances showed this, but he eventually became somewhat of an outcast at the club, and now that he has returned to Milan he has been banished to train with the u23 team until he finds a new club for himself — for no apparent reason at that. Think this kid deserves better. - Edoardo Bove: Leave (expiring loan)
Edoardo Bove was technically signed by Fiorentina on a loan with obligation to buy, but it appears to have been a conditional obligation to buy that, obviously, was not exercised by Fiorentina. As such, he is officially a Roma player for the time being, but after his collapse last December he is not allowed to play professional football in Italy, which might be for the better. - Andrea Colpani: Leave (expiring loan)
Not much new to say here. - Michael Folorunsho: Leave (expiring loan)
Nor here. - Amir Richardson: Leave (€1m loan with €7m option to buy)
In fairness to Raffaele Palladino, a player as unique as Amir Richardson likely isn’t easy to develop, nor do I think it’s easy to optimize his usage, and in any case I certainly don’t expect Stefano Pioli to do a better job at either. Similarly, I don’t think Fiorentina are expecting Richardson to have a bounce-back season in Florence, but that they are rather willing to listen to offers for him, in which case I think a departure on a loan with option to buy is the most likely outcome. - Cher Ndour: Loan
Another project who hasn’t quite worked out, I think there’s a greater chance that Cher Ndour stays at Fiorentina past this summer than there is for Richardson, but he’s just so raw that I would probably bet on him leaving as well, although in the form of a dry loan. Hopefully for Fiorentina he can then develop elsewhere. - Rolando Mandragora: Stay
There is concrete interest in Rolando Mandragora, he is open to leaving Fiorentina, but the club is currently doing whatever they can to retain him. For a 28-year old midfielder with arguably no outstanding attributes outside of the final third, I just cannot understand why? By letting Mandragora go, Fiorentina would make some money and would be allowed to both rejuvenate and improve their midfield in the short-term. Clearly they have other plans, and I think that is very emblematic. I respect that Mandragora is coming off of his best season at Fiorentina, but he remains an extremely limited player in midfield, not to mention relatively old. - Jonas Harder: Loan
As mentioned, Jonas Harder is one of a number of young academy products at Fiorentina who seem to be set to get their first real taste of senior football next season. - Nicolò Fagioli: Stay (€13.5m obligation to buy activated)
Once more, I think this was an excellent signing for Fiorentina, and even though I think Fagioli is unlikely to play up to his potential under Stefano Pioli, it should be emphasized that he was already a standout at Fiorentina under suboptimal conditions last season. He is a truly fantastic player. - Albert Guðmundsson: Stay (€13m renegotiated option to buy)
I think Fiorentina keeping Albert Guðmundsson on a discount was a smart decision, and even though I don’t think Stefano Pioli is the coach who will get the most out of him, I do think Guðmundsson is a fine fit with his new coach. That said, whether or not Guðmundsson will show this also hinges on him returning to peak physical form, and that might be asking a lot. - Lucas Beltrán: Leave (€12m)
After two years, Lucas Beltrán has amassed 15 non-penalty goal contributions in 39.5 90s in Serie A for Fiorentina as a forward. Among attacking midfielders and wingers (!) in the top five leagues over the last year, Beltrán ranks in the 19th percentile for non-penalty goals per 90, the 18th percentile for non-penalty expected goals per 90, the fourth percentile for shots per 90, the 22nd percentile for expected assisted goals per 90, the 13th percentile for npxG+xAG per 90, the 12th percentile for passes attempted per 90, the 59th percentile for pass completion, the 29th percentile for progressive passes per 90, the second percentile for progressive carries per 90, the fourth percentile for successful take-ons per 90, the 30th percentile for tackles per 90, and the 12th percentile for interceptions per 90 (via FBref). Seriously, what does he do? I don’t know what has gone wrong since Beltrán signed for Fiorentina, because he was legitimately a good player for River Plate, but Fiorentina better hope that there are clubs willing to buy into the player he was back then, because he cannot stay in Florence for another season — I’m sorry. - Nicolò Zaniolo: Leave (expiring loan)
Very sad career, hope he’s doing alright. - Tommaso Rubino: Loan
After a dominant season in the Campionato Primavera 1, Tommaso Rubino should be ready for professional football, and it will be incredibly interesting to follow him next season — this could be a star in the making. - Maat Daniel Caprini: Loan
Maat Daniel Caprini isn’t quite the prospect that Tommaso Rubino is, but a very interesting young player to keep an eye on if he gets a loan move this summer nonetheless. - Moise Kean: Stay
In about a week, Moise Kean’s release clause, said to be worth around €50m, becomes invalid. Until then, Fiorentina will be praying that no one activates it, and with Simone Inzaghi’s Al Hilal reportedly being interested, they might very well need to pray. I wonder if there’s enough time for Al Hilal to find an agreement with both Fiorentina and Kean, though. For now, I’m betting against Kean being sold. If he is, however, it is hard to describe just how difficult it will be for Fiorentina to replace him. - Oliver Christensen: Stay
After a very solid half-season on loan at Salernitana, it isn’t surprising that recent reports indicate that Oliver Christensen could stay at Fiorentina as a backup to David De Gea. - Michael Kayode: Leave (€17.5m)
Similarly to Matías Moreno, the bad news are that Fiorentina have let go of Michael Kayode for no apparent reason, but the good news are that they made some serious money doing so — as long as you know what to do with your money, you can’t really lose in this case… not that that applies to Fiorentina. - Lorenzo Lucchesi: Leave (loan with €3m option to buy)
Lorenzo Lucchesi appears to be the perfect example of an academy product who isn’t good enough to have a future at Fiorentina, but who will at least make them some money. This type of player usually leaves on a loan with option to buy rather than a direct, permanent transfer, however. - Nicolás Valentini: Leave (loan with €5m option to buy)
Nicolás Valentini has been linked with a return to Hellas Verona on loan, presumably also with an option to buy. To me it’s a relatively odd decision — in half a season at Verona, I definitely think Valentini showed enough to deserve a chance at Fiorentina this season — he’s even quite suited to the back-three they should run. Then again, at least they will make some money if they sell him. - Costatino Favasuli: Leave (loan with €1.5m option to buy)
Costatino Favasuli is another academy product who should earn Fiorentina some money, if nothing else. - Sofyan Amrabat: Leave (€15m obligation to buy activated)
This is a done deal! - Alessandro Bianco: Stay
Once more I want to emphasize that I think Alessandro Bianco is already a very good midfielder, and it would be foolish of Fiorentina to let him go. At the same time, with his defensive profile I’m not sure how well he would/will fit under Stefano Pioli, whose system tends to seek more athleticism from his midfielders. That is only part of the reason why I wouldn’t be surprised if Alessandro Bianco is let go of, but ideally he should be a cornerstone of this team. - Lorenzo Amatucci: Leave (loan with €4m option to buy)
While I do think Alessandro Bianco has a future at Fiorentina, it doesn’t seem like Lorenzo Amatucci does, and what a shame that is. To make matters worse, I’m not even sure he’s someone Fiorentina will be able to sell on a permanent basis this summer, nor will they make much from his sale once he does leave. I suppose we will have to wait and see as far as that goes, though. - Niccolò Fortini: Stay
As mentioned, Niccolò Fortini is one of Fiorentina’s truly special youth prospects, and by the looks of it he is also someone that they’re trying to hold on to. Furthermore, due to Fortini’s defensive qualities, I am more optimistic about his fit with Stefano Pioli next season. This could be a star in the making… well, as close to a star as you can get while being a full-back — without being Trent Alexander-Arnold, at least. - Cristiano Biraghi: Leave (€250k option to buy activated)
After a bitter end to his time at Fiorentina, Cristiano Biraghi has signed for Torino in a €250k deal. - Antonín Barák: Leave (€2m)
There are some rumors that Stefano Pioli is interested in keeping Antonín Barák upon his return to Fiorentina… from a failed loan spell in Turkey, that is. Barák turns 31 in December and hasn’t had anything resembling a good season in numerous years — I think the real question is how much Fiorentina can get by selling him. If I had to guess, probably not much. - Abdelhamid Sabiri: Leave (€1m)
Best Italiano-era Fiorentina signing. - Nicolás González: Leave (€25m obligation to buy activated)
Fiorentina have made more a lot more from the sale of Nicolás González than they reasonably should have, but don’t let this distract you from the fact that they reportedly turned down a bid worth over €40m for him in the summer of 2023 — bad decision! - Jonathan Ikoné: Leave (€4m)
Jonathan Ikoné actually wasn’t too bad in his half-season on loan at Como last season, but also not good enough for them to use a rather cheap option to buy him. I still think Fiorentina should be able to get a few million Euros for him this summer, though. - Gino Infantino: Leave (loan with €2m option to buy)
An investment in an unproven young player that hasn’t worked out, to put it lightly. - M’Bala Nzola: Leave (€6m)
One of the most notable flop signings during Vincenzo Italiano’s tenure at Fiorentina, M’Bala Nzola would leave the club after just a year, but with Lens electing not to exercise their option to buy Nzola this summer, he has returned to Fiorentina. There are little doubts on whether or not he will stay, but it will be interesting to see how much they are able to sell him for. - Christian Kouamé: Leave (€3m)
Despite Christian Kouamé’s consistently low final third output as a striker, the reported interest in him from clubs like Bologna as recently as last summer makes me optimistic that Fiorentina could finally sell him this summer. - Filippo Distefano (loan with €1.5m option to buy)
Yet another potential financial asset from the youth sector. - Riccardo Sottil: Leave (€6m)
Why did Milan sign this guy!
Part 3: Projected signings
Daniele Ghilardi (€9m)
Hellas Verona’s Daniele Ghilardi is a player Fiorentina were heavily linked with earlier this year, and while those links have definitely faded over time, I do think this is a move Fiorentina should make this summer — in fact, I think this is a good example of the type of signing Fiorentina should generally make. I guess we will see how much Verona want for Ghilardi, but assuming he’s worth somewhere between €5-12m, I think he’s quite perfect for Fiorentina. My descriptions of the spending power that Fiorentina have ostensibly gained over the past year or so may seem somewhat excessive, but their current financial situation should allow them to make signings within the price range above in numerous positions, and the rewards from that can be massive… if you identify the right players, and if you also put them in a position succeed. Sure enough, these are my concerns with Fiorentina — many of the interesting players they have signed have not been developed or utilized optimally, and simultaneously much of Fiorentina’s recruitment is highly uninspiring just based on the players themselves. In any case, Daniele Ghilardi could be a very good signing for Fiorentina in spite of their lack of a prolific developmental coach.
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Although Ghilardi was largely a starter at Verona last season, he is a player who I struggled to follow too attentively. What has really put me on to Ghilardi’s quality is instead his performances in Italy’s u21 national team. Watching Ghilardi in this context is very constructive, as his role at Verona is highly limited. Sure enough, among center-backs in the top five leagues over the last year, Ghilardi ranks in just the fourth percentile for pass completion and the 31st percentile for progressive passes per 90… but also in the third percentile for passes attempted (via FBref), which reflects that this is more so a reflection of the context in which Ghilardi plays, rather than his ability in a vacuum. Where he does still stand out statistically, is in the defensive phase — he ranks in the 82nd percentile for tackles + interceptions per 90. Now, if Ghilardi’s in-possession numbers are deflated by the context of his team, it is also reasonable to think that his out-of-possession numbers are inflated by it, but when you watch him play I think it becomes clear that this really is one of his biggest strengths. With long legs and an impressive physique, Ghilardi is a highly aggressive and disruptive defender. That said, he does have a tendency of being a bit too aggressive — occasionally he will bite on 1v1 moves from opposing attackers, and he can also overuse his arms and overrely on his size advantage when defending, leading to fouls. Sure enough, he ranks in the 35th percentile for percentage of dribblers tackled (albeit this is quite a volatile metric) and the 11th percentile for fouls committed per 90 (lower means more fouls committed). This could give off the impression that Ghilardi is a very basic and limited no-nonsense defender, but again, I think you see a completely different version of him when he plays with the u21 national team.
In this context, Ghilardi mainly looks considerably more comfortable on the ball. Of course it is against different competition, but not necessarily weak competition — especially not some of the top u21 national teams — and beyond that Ghilardi’s ability to handle the ball clearly looks quite ubiquitous. His passing selection is not always the most aggressive, but despite his somewhat brutish defensive style, his ball control is clean and his passes are very well-placed. In addition to that, he has shown flashes of needle-threading, progressive passing, which his stats at Hellas Verona even reflect to an extent — he only ranks in the third percentile for passes attempted per 90, yet the 31st percentile for progressive passes per 90. More importantly, however, it is Ghilardi’s ball-carrying that stands out to me in terms of what he does in possession. In fact, this is arguably a more important trait for what I think could be his best role anyway — as a right center-back in a back-three, that is. This aspect of Ghilardi is especially visually apparent when he plays with the u21 national team, but it can even be backed up by his output to an extent: he ranks in the third percentile for touches per 90, but the 64th percentile for progressive carries per 90. Similarly, Ghilardi’s comfortability on the ball is also backed up statistically: despite playing in a team that hardly takes good care of the ball, Ghilardi ranks in the 61st percentile for miscontrols per 90 and the 77th percentile for times dispossessed per 90 (higher percentile is better for both metrics). Meanwhile, as for Ghilardi’s fit as a wide center-back in a back-three, this is also appropriate when you consider that he struggles with aerial duels despite being 1.89 m tall — he ranks in the 40th percentile for aerial duels won per 90, and the 14th percentile for aerial duel win rate. Being played in a wider role, Ghilardi could instead be allowed to focus on what he does best, excelling as a technically efficient, ball-carrying force in possession, while serving as a disruptive, ball-winning force outside of possession. While Ghilardi is still 22 and could perhaps develop more under a different coach than Stefano Pioli, I think his immediate fit with Pioli is just fine. On top of all this, I would be remiss not to mention that Ghilardi is a local Tuscan kid who spent about a decade in Fiorentina’s youth sector. I think this is a move that makes a ton of sense.
Mattia Viti (loan with €4.5m option to buy)
Initially I was very underwhelmed by this signing by Fiorentina, but looking into some of Mattia Viti’s numbers at Empoli last year, I think it makes some sense. Like Daniele Ghilardi, Mattia Viti is a relatively young wide center-back who spent last season in one of the worst teams in Serie A. Now, on the surface, Viti is a player who hasn’t really been able to make much of his career since his impressive debut season at Empoli at the age of 20 in 2021–22. Indeed, he failed to make an impact at Nice upon moving there, his loan move to Sassuolo the following season was not a success, and then he moved back to Empoli on loan. However, I maintain that there is an appeal to Viti’s game. Similarly to Ghilardi, Viti excels at disrupting play, in fact he ranks in the 97th percentile for tackles + interceptions per 90 (via FBref). His performance in similar metrics via Sofascore give off a similar impression: he won 3.3 ground duels per 90 last season, at a win-rate at 60% — very good! Viti is also less physically aggressive than Ghilardi, excelling at a more astute and proactive style of defending. Moreover, considering Viti was also playing in a relegation-caliber team that didn’t keep much of the ball last season, his in-possession numbers were somewhat respectable. For instance, he ranked in the 47th percentile for progressive passes per 90 despite ranking in just the eighth percentile for passes attempted per 90. Additionally, he ranked in the 51st percentile for progressive carries per 90 despite ranking in just the eighth percentile for touches per 90. On the other hand, Viti ranked in just the 12th percentile for progressive carrying distance, as well as the 19th percentile for miscontrols per 90 and the second percentile for times dispossessed per 90. Indeed, while Ghilardi boasts an impressive combination of power and mobility, Viti is a more light and elegant player, who does still have an element of lankiness about him due to his height. As such, I don’t think he has quite the same upside as Ghilardi, but that is also what makes the formula of this deal favorable — if he’s good, Fiorentina can keep him for cheap, and otherwise they can swiftly move on. Now, is Viti someone Fiorentina need? Well, I would be slightly worried about the fit of someone of his athletic profile under Stefano Pioli, but I think he slots in quite well as a left center-back in a hypothetical back-three at Fiorentina. This is a move that has grown on me, although it’s hardly spectacular.
Alessandro Zanoli (€4m)
One of Fiorentina’s least important needs this summer is a backup right-back, which makes it fully acceptable that Alessandro Zanoli is one of the players they’re looking at. This is about as lukewarm of a move as they come, but for the role he would be brought into, Zanoli isn’t a bad option for Fiorentina. Although he’s bounced around on different loan spells in recent seasons, I think it’s clear that Zanoli has qualities — particularly as a ball-carrier and dribbler. Sure enough, over the last year, Zanoli ranks in the 92nd percentile for progressive carries per 90 and the 83rd percentile for successful take-ons per 90 among full-backs in the top five leagues (via FBref). However, a great passer he is not, and he also lacks consistent threat in the final third — although he has flashed good low-driven crossing, that seems to be about as deep as his bag goes, and over the last year he ranks in just the 30th percentile for npxG+xAG per 90. Still, I would have to think this is a number that is deflated by Zanoli having played in a very defensive team. Speaking of defending, this isn’t an area of expertise for Zanoli either, but it also doesn’t need to be at Fiorentina, as Zanoli would (presumably) be utilized as a wing-back. And overall, this is about the kind of player you would expect Fiorentina to sign as their backup right wing-back. He should be cheap, he doesn’t turn 25 until October, he has some standout qualities, but lacks the completeness to be anything more than a backup. Sounds about right.
Ismaël Bennacer (€3m loan with €12m option to buy)
With at least one of Lorenzo Amatucci and Alessandro Bianco looking set to depart Fiorentina this summer, the club will likely look to bring in a new holding midfielder, and I think they could be interested in Milan’s Ismaël Bennacer. As I have documented on many occasions, Bennacer is one of my favorite Milan players of my lifetime, but nowadays I just don’t know if he has all that much quality left in him. A reunion with Stefano Pioli, whom Bennacer spent five years with at Milan, sounds nice, and it could work out, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Bennacer is a player who has been plagued by injuries for a long time, but it’s his knee injury against Inter in the Champions League in 2023 that has really changed the trajectory of his career. According to Transfermarkt, Bennacer missed a total of 32 games through this injury, and by the time he recovered he looked like a different player; slightly overweight, not as mobile or athletic. Even then, his numbers were quite good when he played, and I think this is the selling point for Bennacer as an idea for Fiorentina. Among midfielders in Serie A in 2023–24, Bennacer ranked in the 89th percentile for passes attempted per 90, the 81st percentile for pass completion, the 75th percentile for progressive passes per 90, the 68th percentile for progressive carries per 90, the 87th percentile for successful take-ons per 90, the 76th percentile for tackles + interceptions per 90, and the 77th percentile for npxG+xAG per 90 (via FBref).
Bennacer isn’t good enough to start for Milan anymore, but perhaps these numbers show that he’s at least good enough to start for Fiorentina? Perhaps, but I’m just not sure I love the risk that comes with that. If you are to get Bennacer back in shape, Stefano Pioli and his staff are probably not the ones you want to entrust. Even then, Bennacer’s injury issues have once more been a consistent limit to his career, even if you look at how they have ostensibly changed him as a player in more recent years. Furthermore, Bennacer turns 28 later this year. To me, this move would feel like lazy scouting on Fiorentina’s part — bringing in one of their coach’s buddies instead of searching thoroughly for a new player that might fit them. In fact, what’s wrong with what you already have at home: Alessandro Bianco and Lorenzo Amatucci? If Fiorentina are afraid of the risk, I think that’s part of their problem — not that this move wouldn’t be risky either, although I think a loan with option to buy formula is realistic.
Jacopo Fazzini (€8m)
At last, Jacopo Fazzini has gotten his move away from Empoli, and I know it’s bleak to romanticize a player leaving his boyhood club, but Fazzini is such a fun player who hasn’t been allowed to fully show what he’s capable of in recent seasons. With his move to Fiorentina, this might finally change. I can’t say anything less about this deal than that I am a fan of it — for a base fee of €8m, it is well worth investing in a 22-year old talent of Fazzini’s caliber. Even in a poor Empoli team, Fazzini’s output last season was not devoid of highlights. For instance, among midfielders in the top five leagues, Fazzini ranked in the 94th percentile for npxG per 90, the 96th percentile for non-penalty goals per 90, and the 91st percentile for touches in attacking penalty area per 90 (via FBref). Sure enough, this is Fazzini’s standout trait: he is a box threat, so much so that he puts up this level of numbers even in one of the worst, least creative teams in Serie A. Now, I am typically the first to downplay midfielders who are primarily good at scoring goals — people often say “[X] goals (and assists) is very good for a midfielder”, but “for a midfielder” implies that the player in question excels in other areas, which is not always the case. Midfielders who excel in the final third often do so precisely because they struggle at doing what midfielders are traditionally asked to do. That is partly the case with Fazzini, but I do once more emphasize that these are great numbers for a midfielder — even of his profile — in such a poor team. Moreover, Fazzini’s most underrated characteristic is probably his technique. Sure enough, he ranks in the 87th percentile for progressive carries per 90 and the 97th percentile for successful take-ons per 90, but I don’t even think these numbers quite reflect just how mobile and elusive Fazzini is in possession. He is an electric player to watch… when he has the ball, and as far as that goes he only ranks in the fourth percentile for touches per 90. Anyway, Fazzini’s qualities in possession are what separate him from a player like Davide Frattesi. He’s not a great passer, nor does he take exceptionally good care of the ball, but he can dribble out of a phone booth and he can both receive and carry it into space. As far as his inefficiencies in possession, he does rank as low as the first percentile for miscontrols per 90 and times dispossessed per 90 respectively, but not only is this exacerbated by the team he plays for, it’s also a reflection of his role.
Finally, Fazzini even does what he can in the defensive phase, ranking in the 52nd percentile for tackles per 90, and the 75th percentile for percentage of dribblers tackled. In fact, in 2023–24 he ranked in the 99th percentile for tackles per 90, the 79th percentile for percentage of dribblers tackled, the 65th percentile for interceptions per 90, and the 88th percentile for blocks per 90, among midfielders in Serie A (via FBref). As such, Fazzini being attacking-minded does not mean he neglects his other duties as a midfielder. For a very low price, I think Fiorentina are getting a mezz’ala who is ready to make a difference from day one, yet who also has plenty of room to grow. Fazzini is 22 years old and is also more or less a local kid — from the same region at the very least, in fact he appears to have grown up supporting Fiorentina. As such, I think this is the kind of move Fiorentina should be making a lot more often.
Simon Sohm (€9m)
Despite it all, Fiorentina seem intentioned to bring in yet another midfielder this summer, and one of the players they’ve been linked with is Simon Sohm. Once more, I think this would be a sensible signing that shows that €9m can get you a long way if you do your scouting right. Similarly to Fazzini, Sohm fits the profile of a hard-working mezz’ala who can make a difference in the final third, but while he’s perhaps a bit more refined, he’s also not the same caliber of defender that Fazzini is. Among midfielders in the top five leagues over the last year, Sohm ranked in the 52nd percentile for npxG+xAG per 90 (via FBref), which is not exceptional, but in a relegation-battling team it is quite good, and it should also be noted that Sohm didn’t play in quite as advanced of a role as he maybe should have last season. That was not the case the season prior, when Sohm ranked in the 86th percentile for npxG+xAG per 90, and the 92nd percentile for touches in attacking penalty area per 90 — albeit this was against Serie B competition. Meanwhile, in possession Sohm is not quite as elegant as Fazzini, but also not quite as erratic. Most notably, he is a more powerful ball-carrier, although I guess the result is the same: they both bring the ball up the pitch. In any case, Sohm ranks in the 84th percentile for progressive carries per 90 over the last year. Still, as referenced, where Sohm is lacking is in the defensive phase: he ranks in the third percentile for tackles + interceptions per 90, and the first percentile for blocks per 90. He’s not a player who likes to get stuck in, and while he partly makes up for this by pressing well, I think his lack of concrete defensive ability would make him more of rotational option under Stefano Pioli. That said, what he does do, he does quite well, and I think this is another profile that makes sense for Fiorentina — beyond his characteristics on the pitch, he only just turned 24 a few months ago.
Florian Thauvin (€5m)
With Sebastiano Esposito supposedly on his way to Cagliari, Fiorentina may have to “settle” for what is likely a more pragmatic signing anyway. It’s clear what profile they’re looking for in attack: a playmaker who can play behind the striker in a front two, serving as the backup to Albert Guðmundsson in the same role. It might then be intriguing to go for former wonderkid Sebastiano Esposito, but the truth is that Florian Thauvin is not only likely cheaper, but perhaps also significantly better. A thorough comparison with Esposito is a waste of time, so let me just tell you straight up: if we look at the numbers, it’s not even a comparison — even if you account for team context and whatnot. In fact, Thauvin himself didn’t play in the most functional team last season — Udinese ranked 14th in Serie in npxG (via FBref). Despite this, his numbers are quite impressive. First of all, with Thauvin being set to play as a sort of false nine at Udinese, let’s look at some of his playmaking-related numbers: among forwards in the top five leagues in the last year, he ranked in the 98th percentile for passes attempted, the 97th percentile for progressive passes per 90, the 97th percentile for progressive carries per 90, the 96th percentile for successful take-ons per 90, and the 85th percentile for xAG per 90 (via FBref). I have to admit: I, myself, have overlooked Thauvin for some time, and he clearly still has plenty of magic in him. Perhaps most impressively, he ranks in the 46th percentile for npxG+xAG per 90 — among forwards, that is; almost exclusively strikers. For reference, here are some players who had a lower npxG+xAG per 90 in Serie A last season: Matías Soulé, Kenan Yıldız, Dan Ndoye, Santiago Castro, Lorenzo Lucca, Ange-Yoan Bonny, Nikola Krstović, Roberto Piccoli, Andrea Pinamonti… oh yeah, and Albert Guðmundsson. The upside of this move is quite significant, and yet it can still be a success even if Thauvin performs at a much lower level. This would be an excellent signing.
Edin Džeko (free)
We close with a relatively boring but inoffensive signing which has already been completed: Edin Džeko. He is a player who needs no introduction, but what he can he provide Fiorentina with in 2025? Well, that is certainly the question — Džeko is now 39 years old today, and there can’t be too much gas left in that tank. Still, it should be said that Džeko is only coming in to be a backup to Moise Kean — or whoever replaces him — and might very well still have what it takes to fill that role. He is coming off of a season in which he amassed a non-penalty goal contribution rate of 0.60 per 90 for Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig… which is not amazing, but also nothing to scoff at. Furthermore, Džeko’s holdup and linkup play have always been some of his defining qualities, and those still remain. Beyond that, a bit of leadership and experience won’t hurt this team. It’s hard for me to have too high expectations for this signing, but I expect Džeko to be a completely fine player, who will do the very important job of giving Fiorentina an alternative to Moise Kean… if he stays.
Part 4: Conclusion
Projected depth chart & and basic financial figures:
Total income: €101.25m
Total expenditure: €71.5m
Closing thoughts
In a perfect world, Fiorentina are perhaps the coolest football club in European football. They already have some of the conditions for this: for starters, they’re the lone club that represents one of the most beautiful and culturally rich cities in Europe. Milan is shared by Milan and Inter, Rome is shared by Roma and Lazio, and Turin is shared by Juventus and Torino, but Florence is just Fiorentina. Meanwhile, Fiorentina also have one of the best aesthetics in all of sports; the gorgeous purple kits, the red flower of Florence, the color purple as a whole — it’s unique in the world of football, it’s incredibly aesthetically pleasing, and thus it is also iconic. In a perfect world, this club is one with a senior team full of young and exciting players, many of which were raised in and around the city that the club represents. The rest of the team would largely be made up of other intriguing talents and emerging stars, identified through prolific scouting, and then developed through excellent coaching. The result would be a team that’s highly competitive, and simultaneously exhilarating to watch — all whilst maintaining deep ties to the city and region it represents. Of course, utopias are inherently idealized, but the thing is that a reality close to this really shouldn’t be unattainable. Signings like Jacopo Fazzini are a glimpse of the recruitment this club should be doing, while a lot of the players Fiorentina have been linked with this summer are also encouraging. Still, who is there to develop them? In fact, for the most part, Fiorentina are a club that are outright bad at recruiting, as is only partly exemplified by the sheer turnover they look set to see this summer. Whatever Fiorentina can be, they just are not. I pray that changes some day soon, because this city deserves it.
