My 2026 predictions are like my 2025 predictions: not “predictive” but rather an experiment in finding the best method for making predictions. Based on the 2025 results, I’m making some adjustments.
I’ve added defense to coach and quarterback, ranking defenses by how often they held teams to 17 points or fewer in 2025. This, I believe, is as sound a measure of a defense as any. The Seahawks did it 12 times, were the #1 seed, and won the Super Bowl; the Cowboys did it once and had a losing record despite a productive offense.
My quarterback ranking is based on total touchdowns, passing and rushing. This separates quarterbacks who put up good numbers but then settle for field goals from those who have finished the job. The kind of quarterbacks who, in a defensive struggle, will put 21 points on the board instead of 17.
Coach success is based only on their last three seasons. Coaches with 1–2 years of experience and who have won a lot are graded accordingly, while those who haven’t been successful yet are graded as “average.” So are all the brand-new coaches. This is a departure from last year’s method, where I ranked all the new coaches last.
