Predicting the Future
Predicting the future isn’t easy, we often get it wrong.
In the 1970’s we all imagined that it wouldn’t be long until we had flying cars, ate pills for food, had robot servants, used laser guns, learned via telepathy, mined the asteroid belt, and vacationed on the moon. Instead, we got laptops, the Internet, mobile phones, streaming video, chatbots, AncestryDNA, online shopping, and Donald Trump.
On the apocalyptic side, we worried about mass starvation, a coming ice age, destruction of the rain forests, mass extinction, nuclear war, running out of oil, acid rain, and the destruction of the ozone layer. We narrowly avoided nuclear war back in the Cuban Crisis, and did take steps to prevent acid rain and the save the ozone layer. Fortunately, none of the others actually happened. Instead, we got global warming and COVID.
So here we are in 2026. What’s coming next is usually what’s already here, but not yet developed. Here’s some predictions, starting with the fairly obvious ones.
This AI thing will definitely take off. It will revolutionize white collar work. Everyone will have an AI-based personal assistant that does most of their writing for them. We will have LLM based AIs in education, medicine, law, finance, travel, software, design, analysis, marketing, customer support, logistics, services, and many more. Any task that involved reading, writing, listening, or talking will be assisted by LLMs. This use of AI will substantially change these jobs and perhaps eliminate some of them.
AI will also be combined with a variety of walking/talking robots, ranging from the robot servants we envisioned back in the 1970s, to robots that handle specialized and perhaps dangerous jobs. This technology has recently advanced considerably, as was demonstrated at the recent Robot Games in China.
Genetic engineering will be used in medicine to cure a variety of cancers and genetic diseases. Genetically modified plants that are high yield and disease resistant will become common. The same will apply to domestic animals. Genetically modifying humans for non-medical reasons will continue to be taboo, but someone will experiment anyway with creating smarter, stronger, healthier, and more beautiful children. This may be even be legal in certain countries and it may be available on the black market in countries where it is banned. Sports will of course have to contend with genetically modified athletes. Finally, it is inevitable that someone will try to build a dinosaur.
With all the research going on these days, it is inevitable that some major development will occur in the realm of climate change. I have no idea what it will be, but a possible candidate will be a practical way to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Another possibility is that we finally stop burning gasoline in cars.
Physics is due for another revolution. I predict that the problems introduced by quantum gravity, dark matter and dark energy will be solved and we will finally realize that the Big Bang theory is wrong and that the universe is much older than 14 billion years.
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I think the combination of self-driving electric vehicles, UBER, and working from home will revolutionize personal transportation. I look forward to the day when I no longer need a car. When I have to go somewhere a self-driving UBER will pick me up and take me there. Perhaps the proliferation of drones, combined with AI, will lead to actual flying cars.
Space travel is hideously expensive and there’s not really much point to it, so I don’t think we will be vacationing on the moon or mining the asteroid belt any time soon. We’ll focus more on space telescopes and AI controlled probes.
The declining birthrate trend will continue and eventually the world population will stabilize at around 10 billion. However this will lead to the proportion of older adults increasing, which will put pressure on healthcare systems and social security programs. Robots and AI could potentially compensate for the reduced number of young workers that are available.
One major variable is of course world political stability. Who would have thought that the most heavily armed and powerful country in the world could be ruled by someone like Donald Trump, a narcisistic megalomaniac. We’re definately in for more political instability with a widening gap between left and right.
On the apocalypse side, we have a couple serious contenders. Global warming is certainly a real threat, but people are beginning to take it seriously, and perhaps we may have time put the brakes on it by reducing emissions. The other big one is the pending technological singularity where AI takes over and wipes us out. I have dealt with both topics in more detail in…
· Global Warming — Human Impact
On the other hand, something quite unexpected could happen. The Earth could be hit by a comet; we could annihilate ourselves with a nuclear war; or a plague could wipe us out. On the plus side: we could tame nuclear fusion; solve the world population problem; cure cancer; and finally figure out why 42 is the answer to the question of life the universe and everything.
So, what do you think. What will the future hold in the next 50 years.
