No, the Epstein Files Don’t Vindicate QAnon
In my new book How (Why and When) to Think Scientifically, in my chapter on conspiracy theories, I argue that — with the possible exception of Russiagate — no conspiracy theory has ever turned out to be true. To be clear, that’s not to say that conspiracies haven’t happened. For example, MKULTRA definitely happened. But no preemptive theory about a conspiracy has ever turned out to be true. When conspiracies are exposed, it’s by things like investigative journalism or things like congressional investigations. What has never happened is that someone armature heard the official story, but then looked at “the clues” and figured out “what really happened.” As I put it in my chapter.
Yes, powerful people do sometimes conspire; but such a thing has never been exposed by a TikTok influencer, working in their basement, with no real inside information, “putting the pieces together.” No conspiracy theorist has ever said “I bet what is really going on is this,” and then turned out to be right. When powerful people conspire, it is exposed, after the fact, through investigative journalism, declassified documents, whistleblower testimony, and/or government investigations. Watergate was a conspiracy. Members of President Nixon’s administration really did orchestrate a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters and then attempted to cover it up. But no one suspected it was occurring until the evidence of it was made public.
But in the wake of the revelations of the Epstein Files, I have heard — more times than I can count — that the files “prove” that “QAnon was right.” Not only have I seen countless online influencers claim this, but on his show, Bill Maher said that he needed to apologize to “QAnon” because it was “not totally wrong.” But, as I will now show, this is nonsense. QAnon is not owed an apology.
What QAnon got wrong
First, the vast majority of what QAnon suggested was provably wrong. For example, QAnon was based in the posts of Q Clearance Patriot (QP) — someone online pretending to have Q-level government clearance on 4chan (and later 8kun) — and the first thing that QP posted, on Oct 28, 2017, was the Hillary Clinton was days away from being arrested. She, of course, never was. QP also made predictions about “The Storm” (a sweeping mass arrest event, that would include John Podesta, Huma Abedin, and other Democrats) that never occurred, despite years of QAnon followers predicting it and then moving the date when it didn’t. QAnon also included the idea that Trump was secretly working with Robert Mueller on all this (he wasn’t), that Trump would win reelection in 2020 (he didn’t), that Mike Pence would overturn the 2020 election (he didn’t), that the military had taken control of the government (it didn’t), that the vaccines would lead to mass deaths (they didn’t), that there would be “microchipping” (there wasn’t), that JFK Jr. (who died in 1999) was going to come back from the dead and be Trump’s VP (he didn’t) … and on and on. (That last one QAnoners believed so fervently that they showed up in Dealey Plaza on Nov 2, 2021, because they actually thought JFK Jr. was going to make an appearance and reinstate Trump as president; needless to say, that didn’t happen.)
Second, the vast majority of the other things QAnon said (that weren’t just straightforwardly and provably wrong) are not included in the released Epstein files. The core of claims of QAnon were (a) the world is run by a cabal of Satan worshiping pedophiles, that were (b) harvesting adrenochrome from their victims because it has magic “youth preserving powers,” and that (c) Donald Trump was leading the investigation to expose them all and have them all arrested. None of these claims are vindicated by the files. They do not vindicate the claim all the world’s leaders belong to the cabal (yes, there are some powerful people, but not nearly enough to say that they collectively run the world). They do not contain anything about Satan worship or adrenochrome harvesting. And there is nothing about Trump leading an investigation or movement to expose anyone.
Granted, some on the right have claimed that the files suggest that Trump informed the FBI about Epstein, but (a) it’s not clear that the report such arguments mention is even true, and (b) what that report suggests is that Trump called the Palm Beach Police Department, after Epstein’s sex crimes became public, to tell him that he was glad Epstein was being stopped because “everyone has known he’s been doing this.” You would think I don’t need to say this, but this doesn’t prove Trump was informing the FBI because (1) The Palm Beach Police is not the FBI. (2) The only reason I can think to make a call like that is to “dis-incriminate” yourself. “I couldn’t have been doing it too; I called and said I was glad you caught him.” And (3) Trump placing the call after means that Trump knew what Epstein was doing and yet still didn’t report it. So, instead of exonerating Trump, it suggests that he was complicit.
Indeed, far from being the one to expose it, no one is doing more to cover up for Epstein’s ring of pedophiles than Trump. Despite his campaigns promises, after he took office, Trump reversed course, calling the Epstein files “a hoax” and having his DOJ and FBI release a memo saying there was no incriminating evidence targeting powerful figures in the files (which we now know was a lie). Trump then actively lobbied against the release of the files, broke ties with republicans who supported the idea, and only signed Epstein Files Transparency Act (which legally required their release) once it was clear it had a near unanimous (un-vetoable) support from Congress. And, contrary to what that law legally required, Trump’s DOJ has only released about 1% of the files, and what they did release was heavily redacted in an illegal way. (Only the names victims were supposed to be redacted; instead the release exposed many victims and redacted the names of many offenders.)
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Worse still, instead of being the one to expose it (as QAnon suggested), it seems that Trump was at the center of it. Not only was Trump in Epstein’s “little black book,” some information in the file suggests, contrary to Trump’s claim that he broke contact with Epstein in the mid 2000s, Trump and Epstein were still in contact as late as 2011 — long after Epstein pled guilty to solicitation of prostitution (involving a minor) and procurement of a minor for prostitution.
And, despite the fact that the FBI tried to redact Trump’s name from the files (many assumed at Trump’s order), and that many of the withheld files are related to Trump (including 50 pages of FBI documents with interviews with a woman that credibly “accused Trump of sexual abuse decades ago when she was a minor,”) Trump’s name still appears in them 38,000 times. (Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who had brief access to the unredacted files, said Trump’s name showed up in them more than a million times!) Although the online memes that suggested that Trump said Prince Andrew should be pardoned by the Queen (after he was arrested because of the files) were false, Trump still expressed sympathy for him, claiming that his arrest was a “very sad thing” and “a shame.”
In short, Trump’s handling of the files is a far cry from the expected vengeful “Storm” that would instigate martial law, that QAnon predicted. And Trump’s constant presence in the files shows that it’s central “Trump is going to save us from the pedophiles” narrative is false.
What QAnon Got Right
But the biggest reason that the files don’t vindicate QAnon is this: everything that QAnon “got right” was public knowledge before QP or any QAnoner claimed it. Yes, early QP posts hinted Jeffrey Epstein trafficked children to powerful elites for sex; but that was already widely known before QAnon was even a glint in 4-Chan’s eye. The first QAnon posts on 4-Chan didn’t appear until late 2017, but Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes were first investigated in 2005, became part of court records in 2008, and were widely reported by mainstream journalists years before QAnon ever appeared. By 2015, victims were publicly describing being trafficked to Epstein’s private island, and allegations about him trafficking to his known elite friends were already circulating (long before the specific names were officially unsealed in 2024).
Granted, Pizzagate also came before QAnon. (Pizzagate is a conspiracy theory inspired by the wikileaks email scandal that suggested that Hillary Clinton was running a pedophile ring. Basically, it suggested that every instance of the word “pizza” in the emails was code for “kid” and that Clinton was running a pedophile ring out the basement of a pizza shop… that actually had no basement.) And yes, Pizzagate got folded into QAnon. But Pizzagate happened in 2016, after knowledge of Epstein’s activities were already widely known. It did not predict a pedophile sex ring before public knowledge of one existed. At best it tried to say that the one we were already learning about what actually run by someone else.
Now, we did learn about the institutional failures that protected Epstein in 2018, after QAnon began — most notably through the Miami Herald’s “Perversion of Justice” investigation, which exposed the secret 2008 federal plea agreement Florida officials granted him. But this can hardly be counted as a win for QAnon. The failures were uncovered by investigative journalism, not predicted by QAnon. The Florida Attorney General at the time was Pam Bondi (who is now Trump’s Attorney General), and the U.S. Attorney who procured the deal was Alexander Acosta, who later served in Trump’s cabinet. This does not “vindicate” QAnon. Again, its primary “Trump savior” narrative lies in ruins.
If a conspiracy theory is going to be said to “have been right,” or to be “not totally wrong,” it has to correctly predict that something will occur or profess to know something that is not already known. QAnon did not do this. It merely absorbed an already-known scandal — Epstein was trafficking kids to wealthy elites — and then wrapped it in a fantastical narrative involving satanic rituals, magical substances, secret military operations, and a messianic Trump figure — all of which are false and never happened, and none of which the Epstein files support.
Conclusion
So no, Bill Maher, QAnon is not owed an apology. QAnon didn’t successfully predict anything. It parasitized off of the work of real journalists and then added fiction. A theory is not vindicated simply because it contains true statements that we already knew were true; vindication only comes when distinctive, risky predictions come true. QAnon’s never did.
