2026 Blue Tsunami Reflections And Next Steps:
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I’ll be catching up a bit and likely slow to respond in the coming days on an individual basis for full disclosure.
Like I said before Tuesday, we had a lot of work to do after these midterms. But we should certainly celebrate the pro-democracy wins from this week, as well as be reminded of the room for improvement and the duties ahead.
For example, with the surprise midterm wins, possibly leveraging the bargaining power of new governments and elected officials to restore fair, representative congressional districts in Memphis, Nashville, Northeastern Louisiana, Montgomery, Alabama, suburban Atlanta, etc., in exchange for potentially unwinding GOP gerrymanders (or dummymanders) in North Carolina, Florida, Texas, etc. for 2028.
(Instead of gerrymandering blue states).
What happened in both the Congress (House and Senate) is historic and extraordinary. Extraordinary because of the obstacles stacked against Democrats from Big Money to the GOP gerrymandering, as well as a loss of ground historically among rural and working class voters. Not to mention that Democrats had a high bar because they held so many House and Senate seats as a minority party (215 and 47 respectively), and would have to win heavily conservative and pro-Trump 2024 districts to build up a sizable majority.
And that was what happened. Democrats winning in double-digit, Trump-won House districts from Kentucky and Indiana, to North Carolina and Tennessee. Almost all of the GOP gerrymandered districts went the way of the Democrats, especially in Texas and Florida; then some. Some older GOP gerrymanders from 2022, including Kentucky, Missouri, and South Carolina, also cracked this cycle.
Some wins weren’t even remotely expected in almost any way, whether it is TN-04, OH-10, IN-05, NC-13, NV-02, NJ-02, TX-09, or pending on final votes, CO-04 and MN-01. A possible total pickup of 40+ House seats at least, slightly more than 2018.
Same thing with the Senate. It took 90 years, but Democrats finally picked up a Senate seat in Kansas. Democrats will have Senators for the first time since the 1980s and 1990s in Texas and South Carolina. Mississippi is still too close to call.
The state elections went well, even beyond the big gubernatorial contests. Democrats won a multitude of statewide races in the big battlegrounds of 2026, while sweeping the traditional bellwethers. In 2027, there will be statewide Democrats in roles of Secretaries of State, Attorneys General, State Treasurers/Comptrollers, and State Auditors in Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas.
Even Indiana elected not 1, but 2, Democrats to statewide offices (Secretary of State and State Comptroller), breaking longtime droughts in that state.
Missouri saw a very competitive State Auditor race decided only by a little more than 4 points for a contest the Republican incumbent was expected to coast by rather easily.
But more than anything else, reminiscent of 2010, Republicans lost considerable ground on the state legislative level, with Democrats flipping chambers so far in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Texas…and very likely, Georgia and Arizona.
Just as big was the ground made in chambers Republican still will control. Legislative supermajorities were broken in the following, sometimes simultaneously, State House and State Senate chambers: Ohio, Iowa, Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Florida, and South Carolina.
Democrats picked up 16 State House seats each in both Missouri and Indiana. They picked up 20 in Kansas, just a little bit short of an outright House majority. They picked up about 10 in Iowa, and about 6 currently in Ohio.
Not to mention big judicial victories in North Carolina, Ohio, and Montana.
Democrats can still do more; and they need to for the 2028 elections, starting now.
You’re Probably Getting Screwed
Although Democrats were voted in decisively, excitement and approval for the party remains rather low. Most voters don’t trust either party to address the issues that they are facing today. 2028 will feature more GOP-leaning working class voters that Democrats haven’t fully won back yet. Republicans will certainly try to learn lessons from this cycle, or like in Texas, try to diminish the powers and obstruct the agenda of incoming elected Democratic Party officials.
But there’s more specifically.
Despite real improvements which saved several incumbents and open seats, Democrats came up just short in Florida. Not just for Governor or Senate despite no national resources or general interest, but for a multitude of close potential House pickup opportunities, including in South Florida (FL-27, FL-26, and FL-28), the central I-4 Corridor (FL-13, FL-07, FL-16, FL-12, FL-18, and FL-11), and North Florida (FL-04 and FL-02).
Not that national money will make a difference in a unique, vast, and very expensive state as much as grassroots party infrastructure and local outreach can.
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Some groups also did not do their part in crucial elections, like the Blue Dogs PAC.
The Blue Dogs Were Once Majority Makers — This Cycle They Haven’t Barked
Likewise, although American Jewish communities by-and-large continued to back Democrats, some support softened this cycle, including in Michigan. Much of this revolves around Anti-Semitism concerns in general since October 7, 2023.
Incoming Providence, RI Mayor David Morales’ tenure may provide clues, and possibly a model for others, to support worried and concerned Jewish Americans while advocating consistently for basic Palestinian human rights.
Likewise, continuing to reach out to Latino communities. With Florida as a prime case example, Cuban Americans do support Republicans still. The support among Hispanics in Florida, and more so in Miami-Dade County, did not fully crater as much in 2026 relative to South Texas, Southwestern border states, or the big Northeastern and Midwestern cities. Learning how to out organize the GOP and reach Venezuelan and Cuban American communities in Little Havana and Hialeah and Doral will shape whether Democrats can win new support in these communities.
Or investing in regular Black organizing across the South, including in Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
And like messaging, reform-minded action also matters. The suburban, exurban, and rural working class gains of 2026 will only be kept if Democrats commit to their promises, or try to stand by them; even if the Trump Administration does not. The White House may still block and veto popular Democratic Party priorities and solutions, but if nothing else, Democrats have to try upholding their populist commitments to the American people however they can, and not back down to special interests.
Will the Democratic Leadership Dare to Be Bold?
All Right, Then, I’ll Go to Hell
Democrats won! Now they have to decide what comes next.
The promises Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans did not fulfill, nor attempt to fulfill at all, since 2024.
If Donald Trump doesn’t want to govern with this new Congress, that’s his problem.
Also, in this discussion about affordability vs. accountability, we can certainly walk and chew gum at the same time. More on that down the road.
Plenty of work to do for this second chance.
A Huge Win. Now Democrats Have to Deliver.
In the meantime, hats off to every American who took the duty seriously to save our democracy and say enough is enough with this rigged system and this crazy federal government.
More to come soon.
P.S For all fair credit before anyone else, Chuck Rocha and Mike Madrid have long forecasted and covered in depth the trends playing out right now in 2026.
