<![CDATA[Stories by Kryptera on Medium]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/fit/c/150/150/1*OvL-lQO-0x15jAockFDYWQ@2x.jpeg Stories by Kryptera on Medium https://medium.com/@Kryptera?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 Medium Thu, 05 Nov 2026 01:15:03 GMT <![CDATA[The Portfolio That Was Built Not to Lose]]>

What happens when you build a portfolio around the single goal of never hurting, and then let 15 years of markets judge it?

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]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera/the-portfolio-that-was-built-not-to-lose-ff5c36c2e51d?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://medium.com/p/ff5c36c2e51d Wed, 04 Nov 2026 12:01:02 GMT 2026-11-04T12:01:02.368Z <![CDATA[The $1 Million Retirement That Almost Didn’t Make It]]>

3 retirees. Same $1 million. Same year. One of them ended with $15,626.

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]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera/the-1-million-retirement-that-almost-didnt-make-it-128fed2a25cb?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://medium.com/p/128fed2a25cb Tue, 03 Nov 2026 12:01:03 GMT 2026-11-03T12:01:03.601Z <![CDATA[Equal Slices, Unequal Crashes: What 22 Years of Backtesting Says About the Golden Butterfly]]>

A 22-year backtest of the Golden Butterfly, and what it teaches about what you’re really buying when you diversify.

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]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera/equal-slices-unequal-crashes-what-22-years-of-backtesting-says-about-the-golden-butterfly-82ccff685160?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://medium.com/p/82ccff685160 Mon, 02 Nov 2026 12:01:02 GMT 2026-11-02T12:01:02.156Z <![CDATA[The Portfolio That Was Built Not to Be Surprised]]>

20 years of Ray Dalio’s All Weather idea, tested with real costs. It was a smooth ride for most of the trip, until the one year it wasn’t.

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]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera/the-portfolio-that-was-built-not-to-be-surprised-f5e3e54cacaa?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://medium.com/p/f5e3e54cacaa Sun, 01 Nov 2026 12:01:01 GMT 2026-11-01T12:01:01.865Z <![CDATA[I Backtested the Simplest Portfolio I Could Think Of: One-Third SPY, One-Third Gold, One-Third Long…]]>

A no-signal portfolio beat SPY on drawdown and Sharpe for 21 years. Then 2022 showed where diversification stops working.

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]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera/i-backtested-the-simplest-portfolio-i-could-think-of-one-third-spy-one-third-gold-one-third-long-e256c0ef0d21?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://medium.com/p/e256c0ef0d21 Sat, 31 Oct 2026 12:01:01 GMT 2026-10-31T12:01:01.572Z <![CDATA[The Cash That Never Worked]]>

Over 33 years and 2,000 alternate histories, spreading out the investment never once beat putting it all in on day one.

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]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera/the-cash-that-never-worked-1ba9fb8a9d89?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://medium.com/p/1ba9fb8a9d89 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 12:01:01 GMT 2026-10-30T12:01:01.825Z <![CDATA[The Boring ETF That Rewards Bad Days: An IBS Backtest on XLP]]>

A vectorbt test of Internal Bar Strength on the Consumer Staples ETF, December 1998 to October 2026

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]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera/the-boring-etf-that-rewards-bad-days-an-ibs-backtest-on-xlp-7e10164955e9?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://medium.com/p/7e10164955e9 Thu, 29 Oct 2026 12:01:02 GMT 2026-10-29T12:01:02.168Z <![CDATA[The Quiet Signal: What Happens When You Only Buy SPY Fear Inside an Uptrend]]>

A 7.75%-exposure SPY strategy with a Sharpe above buy and hold, and why it still isn’t a replacement for owning the index

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]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera/the-quiet-signal-what-happens-when-you-only-buy-spy-fear-inside-an-uptrend-406e1f884b40?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://medium.com/p/406e1f884b40 Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:01:02 GMT 2026-10-28T12:01:02.556Z <![CDATA[Acceleration Bands on QQQ: Buy the Close Below the Lower Band, Sell the First Bounce]]>

A 27-year backtest of a dip-buying rule that was invested just 7.7% of the time, won 76% of its 135 trades, and cut max drawdown from 83%…

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]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera/acceleration-bands-on-qqq-buy-the-close-below-the-lower-band-sell-the-first-bounce-24101b8eb47f?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://medium.com/p/24101b8eb47f Tue, 27 Oct 2026 12:01:02 GMT 2026-10-27T12:01:02.782Z <![CDATA[My Stochastic Strategy Lost to Buy & Hold on SPY. Then I Ran a Grid Search.]]>

Sitting in the market 25% of the time, with a max drawdown of about 26% instead of 55%.

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]]> https://medium.com/@Kryptera/my-stochastic-strategy-lost-to-buy-hold-on-spy-then-i-ran-a-grid-search-8d7d74a4dd29?source=rss-74a837c27e96------2 https://medium.com/p/8d7d74a4dd29 Mon, 26 Oct 2026 12:01:02 GMT 2026-10-26T12:01:02.032Z