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Why Most Traders Are Playing A Game That Cannot Be Won
Part one of a ten-part series on filtering trades instead of forecasting them.
Two trades, same system, same three checks.
The first one stopped out. It broke the level I wanted, turned around, and took my exit. One R gone — the smallest unit of loss I allow myself.
The second I felt nothing about. It had reclaimed its moving-average cluster and held there, the confirmation turned while price sat in the zone I’d marked, and my exit was set before I entered. Three conditions present, so I took it. Same as any other.
It ran 24%.
I didn’t know which would be which. That’s not modesty — there’s nothing in the method designed to know. The second trade cleared exactly the same three checks as the first. Both earned a click. The market then did something completely different with each of them, and no amount of staring at either chart beforehand would have told me which one was the winner.
One cost me 1R. The other paid for a lot of 1Rs.
That’s the entire argument for everything below.
