Georgia’s Competitive Districts: HD-138
As a reminder, this is a district breakdown in a series of posts on the competitiveness of Georgia legislative districts. For a review of the methodology and background information, please start here:
District Data
Demographics and Registration
Check out more details and great visualizations from Statistical Atlas:
Model Projections
Candidates
Mike Cheokas — Republican (Incumbent)
Website:
Fundraising:
As of October 25th filing:
Total raised — $191,283.24
Raised in this period — $60,600.00
Total spent — $164,613.66
Spent in this period — $68,505.10
Cash on hand — $26,669.58
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Bio:
- First elected to the district in 2004
- President of Cheokas and Cheokas, Inc.
- Chairman of the House Information and Audits Committees
Bill McGowan — Democrat
Website:
https://www.facebook.com/Billmcgowanga/
Fundraising:
As of October 25th filing:
Total raised — $9,178.75
Raised in this period — $7,650.00
Total spent — $4,898.00
Spent in this period — $4,898.00
Cash on hand — $4,280.75
Bio:
- Endorsed by President Barack Obama
Analysis
This race will be interesting to watch from my perspective. The current model has this district as a near 50–50 split, but there is a massive fundraising disparity. Add in that Mr. McGowan received the endorsement of the President and this will be an interesting test case to see how all of these factors affect the final tally.
While I think this is another district that could flip by 2018 or 2020, I believe that the fundraising disparity gives a few points to Rep. Cheokas. I have heard that the state Republican party is concerned about this race, which can probably explain the extra fundraising effort. I’ll keep an eye on this race when the numbers get updated, but I have this in my lean-R column due to the 19-to-1 financing disparity.
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