The U.S. Midterms: What To Expect
Is It Too Little, Too Late For The Republicans?
Contents
- Introduction
- What Are The Midterm Elections
- The House
- The Senate Race: The Polling Data
- The Senate Race: The Betting Markets
- Concluding Remarks
Bitesize Edition
- Republican Headwinds — Historically, the President’s party has lost seats in 20 of the last 22 midterm elections since 1938. Trump’s net approval rating currently sits at -22.3, with economic and trade policies receiving even worse ratings. This creates a challenging outlook for Republicans heading into November 3rd.
- House Forecast — Harvard’s forecast gives Democrats a 93% chance of taking House control, with polling projecting 227 seats compared with 186 for Republicans, with 22 seats as toss-ups. Polymarket also favours Democrats, projecting a 234–201 split. A Democratic House would increase congressional oversight and make it harder for Trump to advance his legislative agenda.
- Senate Battlegrounds — Democrats are forecast to win 52 seats in the Senate according to Polymarket, potentially gaining control of the chamber. Eight states are classified as toss-ups in the polling data, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. These contests could determine Senate control, although polling and betting markets remain uncertain.
- Trump’s Response — Losing either chamber would make passing legislation more difficult, although Trump would retain veto power and significant executive authority. His recent actions may also be intended to strengthen domestic support and improve Republican electoral prospects, although the potential that these moves are successful is incredibly low, with sentiment towards the Trump Administration hurting today. However, Trump continues to make moves. As he attempts to make moves domestically, this will impact the United States, but it will also impact the rest of the world.
Introduction
The United States will head to the polls on November 3rd for the midterm elections. This will have consequences for the remainder of Trump’s second term. As such, today, we’ll explore how the midterm elections work and what the expected results are in current polling data and in betting markets. Let’s discuss below.
What Are The Midterm Elections?
The midterm elections are often treated as a referendum on the current administration halfway through the President’s term. The midterm elections will see parts of the House and the Senate re-elected.
In 20 of the last 22 midterm elections since 1938, the party of the President has lost seats in Congress (House and Senate). On average, the party that controls the White House loses 28 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate.
The most notable past midterm elections include 1894, where the Democrats lost 116 seats in the middle of an economic panic, and 1994, where the Republicans gained 54 seats in the House.
This doesn’t ensure that the current President and their party will lose the next election, but it does create a worrying outlook for the Republicans generally. This is especially true when we look at Trump individually.
Trump’s current approval rating is a net -22.3. This is calculated by taking the approval rate and subtracting the disapproval rate.
To break this down further, his net approval of trade policy is -30.6, and net approval of economic policy is -32.9. Trade and the economy have been two of Trump’s proposed strengths in the past, but today, more citizens disapprove of his strategy in these areas than approve of his strategy.
Few past presidents had a worse net approval rating by the end of their term; only Nixon, Trump’s first term, George W. Bush, and Truman have had a worse net approval rating at the end of their term than Trump has today, halfway through his term. If this current trend continues, Trump could push towards the lowest net approval rating of all time, which was Nixon with -42. This occurred during the Watergate scandal.
And so, with some worry surrounding the Trump Administration and the Republicans, what can we expect in the House and the Senate when these elections take place in a few weeks’ time?
The House
All 435 seats are up for election during the midterms, with members serving two-year terms. Currently, per Harvard, the Democrats have a 93% chance of winning the House. The Republicans currently hold the House, but by a narrow margin of only four seats (218 vs 214). There are two empty seats and one independent seat, so a four-seat margin isn’t a difficult swing.
In the polling data, as of October 19th, the Democrats are expected to win 227 seats versus the Republicans’ 186. 22 seats are allocated as toss-up seats. Even if the Republicans won all 22 of these toss-up seats, this would give them a total of 208. This is shy of the 218 seats needed for a majority, and also shy of the Democrats’ 227 expected seats. Polling data such as this supports the incredibly high probability that the Democrats will take control of the House.
A Democratic House would give the Democrats greater oversight and investigative powers. The majority party elects the Speaker, who controls the schedule and decides which bills are voted on. The House also has the authority to pursue impeachments.
Secondly, the betting markets don’t directly measure voter preference, but they do track where bettors are putting their money. As such, betting markets indicate what bettors expect the outcome to be.
Also, in this current election cycle, bettors seem to be more focused on betting on the potential vote share, rather than who wins the House or the Senate outright.
Per Polymarket, the Democrats are currently expected to win 234 seats versus the Republicans with 201. This would see the Democrats pick up 26 seats from the Republicans, with the Republicans flipping 7 Democrat seats for a net change of +19 seats. The final expected seat the Democrats will gain is the currently held independent seat.
The betting markets also paint a picture of a clear Democrat win in the House, with Polymarket saying the Democrats have a 90.1% chance of winning the House.
Despite the race for the House seeming clear-cut, the battle in the Senate is more contested.
The Senate Race: The Polling Data
In mid-September, the Senate was seen as a toss-up. However, today, the Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate are rising, sitting at 69% today, according to Harvard.
Senate control allows the majority party to set the legislative agenda and has additional consequences for nominations and confirmations.
Around one-third of seats are up for grabs in the Senate, as senators serve six-year terms that are staggered. Currently, of the 100 seats in the Senate, the Republicans hold 53. The Democrats and Independents hold 47.
35 seats are up for re-election in the following states: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming.
In 2024, Trump won many of these states by double-digit percentage points over the Democrats in the Presidential election, including Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming.
On paper, with gaps this large in 2024, it would seem that Trump couldn’t have slipped that far down in public opinion that the battle for the Senate would be contested. Unfortunately for Trump, opinion has slipped so far that the Senate seems more likely to be Democrat-controlled than Republican-controlled after November 3rd.
In the polling data, the Democrats are currently leading clearly in 12 of the 35 of these Senate races. This is determined by Real Clear Polling data. Of the states that voted strongly for Trump in 2024, none of these states has fully flipped and become part of the 12 of the 35 states expected to vote strongly for the Democrats.
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The Republicans are currently leading in 15 of the 35 Senate races. These states are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
This means 8 of these races are toss-ups (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas). This is a more conservative model than others. For example, NBC’s coverage only has Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas as toss-ups.
Out of these key swing states, the Democrat and Republican candidates are within two percentage points in Kansas, Iowa, and Maine. The other swing states are close to a three-percentage-point difference. All of these states could swing either way as of current polling data.
In 2024, Trump won Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas by over 10 percentage points. It’s in these states where the Republicans are expected to lose masses of support.
Some states are also tighter than others, and these could also change significantly in the next few weeks. Georgia, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are weakly predicted to be Democrat, while Florida and South Carolina are weakly predicted to be Republican.
With two weeks still to go, these toss-up states and those only weakly predicted in a certain direction could shift once again.
The betting markets also add more context to the battle for the Senate.
The Senate Race: The Betting Markets
In the betting markets, the Senate races in Texas, Maine, and Michigan have received the most trading volume. Texas is particularly notable, with it historically seen as a Republican foothold.
Overall, Polymarket has the Democrats winning 52 seats, gaining 5 from the Republicans. This would see the Republicans then hold a total of 47 seats in the Senate. Since the Republicans currently hold 53 seats, the remaining seat that is expected to be lost by a Republican is predicted to be taken by an independent.
The Democrats are the favourite to win in 6 of these swing states (Alaska, Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Texas). Four of these (Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Texas) would be flipped from Republican to Democrat.
The Republicans are expected to win in Iowa, where Ashley Hinson, the Republican candidate, has a 59% chance on Polymarket, versus the Democratic candidate, Josh Turek. Also, in Kansas, Republican Roger Marshall currently has a 64% chance of beating Democrat Adam Hamilton, according to Polymarket.
In other states, such as Nebraska, South Carolina, Mississippi, and South Dakota, the Republicans have better probabilities of retaining control by some betting markets and polls.
From both the polling data and betting markets, it’s clear that these close races will determine the direction in which the Senate falls.
Now, polling data can’t be taken as gospel, and betting market data most certainly can’t. A forecast is unpredictable and has inherent flaws. Often, the polling doesn’t represent the full society. Overrepresentation or underrepresentation of a specific group within a society is common, which sways the results.
Polls also don’t predict voters who won’t turn up, or those who may shift stance late.
Polling data also has a margin of error. This is a percentage range within which expected polling data could swing.
This percentage range can sometimes be larger than the expected gap between candidates in a specific state. This is often used to indicate which votes are a toss-up.
Even if the Democrats are expected to win all of these toss-up races, the margin of error could very easily see these races swing the other way. This much was demonstrated in the 2024 Presidential Election.
In the 2024 Presidential Election, the swing states were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Democrats were expected to win some of these seven swing states that would determine the Presidential race, but Trump took all seven. This highlights that polling and forecasting are naturally uncertain.
State-Level Analysis of The 2024 United States Election
Hence, the results in the 2026 Senate races will be largely influenced by the potential swing of these eight key states, but until the day unfolds, these Senate races could swing either way.
Still, despite the dire outlook, Trump continues to make moves in an effort to boost his own political position. What specific moves has he been making? We’ll discuss this on Thursday.
Concluding Remarks
Trump will continue to make moves before the midterms, because losing Congressional control will make passing legislation much more difficult. However, Trump will retain veto power and strong executive authority.
Some of the recent moves Trump has made seem unconnected to the upcoming midterms. However, many of his recent moves have seen Trump attempting to boost domestic support. With this, he hopes it will boost the odds of the Republicans in the midterms, which in turn won’t hinder Trump himself by losing control of the House and the Senate.
It’s these moves that we’ll break down on Thursday, where we’ll explore what moves he has made, why he has made these moves, and if they will have the desired effect or if they will backfire.
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