Free Agency Changes Are Altering the Baseball Landscape
In our latest podcast, one thing we explored with Rays Senior VP/GM Erik Neander is why the off-season has been so slow in developing. The new year started with well over 100 free agents still unsigned, including the top ten players available. In addition, only seven players had signed deals of three years, and none of four years or more.
That’s not to say large deals won’t come. Eric Hosmer reportedly has a pair of seven-year offers. Bryce Harper will certainly get that and more when he hits the market next season. If you reach free agency at 27 or 28, you still have plenty of prime years in front of you. But most free agents are not in the same boat as Hosmer or Harper.
That’s why mammoth deals of five-plus years and $100-plus million are becoming more and more uncommon. The question is whether that helps the Rays. Let’s take a look.
This year, while the top free agents have yet to be awarded contracts, only two deals have surpassed the annual value of the qualifying offer of $17.4 million (Justin Upton re-signing with the Angels, and Carlos Santana with the Phillies).
Last year, there were only 18 deals of three years or more (10 above three years, and no deals above five seasons). There was only one deal above $100 million total, and nothing that averaged higher than $17.2 million.
The previous year (heading into 2016) there were seven deals at six years or greater, and 25 at three or more. There were eight players who received $20 million or more per year, and 10 received more than the qualifying offer average.
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That many contracts of that magnitude was the rare case over the past handful of seasons. Leading into 2015, there were 24 deals at three years or better, but only five that were higher than four, and only two contracts that were more than $100 million.
The year prior, 20 of the 28 longer-term deals were three or four years, and only four were above $100 million total.
We certainly haven’t headed back to the days where players earned their value year to year on one-year contracts, but for the majority, perhaps free agency isn’t as lucrative long-term as it once was.
It used to be a premier player awaited the big deal and essentially got paid for what they did in the previous six years rather than what they would be worth over the next six (or seven to ten seasons). Now, analytics plays a greater role each year. Because of that fewer teams will pay top dollar for players behind their year 34 season.
So, how could that help the Rays? Well for one, if there are more one and two-year deals, it means more individuals choosing the best playing opportunity. That could lead players to more frequently fall to Tampa Bay as Tommy Hunter and Logan Morrison did. It also leads veteran type players to be available, which if you choose the right ones, can benefit clubhouse chemistry as well as production.
It’s also possible that more players early in their career may seek longer-term deals. When the Rays were at their best, they locked up Carl Crawford, James Shields, Evan Longoria, etc.
Those deals the last several years became less prevalent throughout the game, as fewer players were willing to reach those agreements, wanting to get free agency as early as possible. However, a deal may be better off, if a player is a late-bloomer. That individual sees the big leagues regularly at 26 or 27, and wouldn’t reach free agency until 32 or 33. In today’s climate, they may not cash in via free agency. It may turn out to be better off to take the sure opportunity at the time.
With the market continuing to move slowly, it something that certainly bears watching. Locking up the right talent slightly beyond the arbitration years and having access to potential veteran talent could be a help going forward.
