Member-only story
Who Spends the Last 130 Gigatonnes?
Three states counted what is left. One bloc told the court it cannot be divided.
Four papers published this year put a number on the same quantity. The carbon dioxide left to emit from January 2026, for an even chance of holding warming below one and a half degrees. The numbers are ninety gigatonnes, a hundred and thirty, a hundred and seventy, and two hundred and fifty. Three of them appeared in the same journal. Two appeared in the same paper, on the same page, before being averaged together into a third.
The quantity is disputed at both ends by people doing serious work, with equivalent rigour at both ends, and what separates them is what waits for each outside the journal. The low end has an industry that can use it. The high end has moral urgency and an attention economy that can use it. Neither of those facts is evidence about the science, and nothing below accuses anyone of exaggerating.
A quantity can be disputed honestly at both ends and still produce the same political outcome at either end. When that happens, ask who benefits from the outcome rather than who is right about the number.
