InHeamibyJose Heavena·Oct 19She Bet ₹10 on Dinner, but Won Something More PreciousI made naan and spicy potato masala for dinner, but my daughter had a little bet of her own. What followed reminded me why the smallest…A response icon1A response icon1
Shibui Yusuke·Oct 18Can AI Win a Bet? Who You’re Up Against, and What It Takes to WinIn October 2025, six frontier large language models (LLMs) were each given $10,000 of real money. The experiment, called Alpha Arena, let…
QuestionClass·Oct 11How Can You Best Hedge Your Bets?A good hedge does not require you to predict the future correctly. It prevents one wrong prediction from deciding everything that comes…
Das Punter·Oct 8New Tweaked ModelsSo I’ve been a little quieter of late, but that’s about to change again, as I have finally tweaked and refined two models that I’ve been…
Cipher Phreak·Oct 3Polymarket from Zero, Part 1: Your Profit Is Someone Else’s LossBefore you place a single trade, learn who is on the other side of it.
Maxim Pogodin·Sep 28Bankroll, Value, Psychology: The Three Pillars of Smart BettingFinding value bets and managing your bankroll isn’t enough. Without psychological resilience, even the best analysis and the strictest…
Maxim Pogodin·Sep 4Two Bettors, Same Bets, Same Wins — Different Profits. Here’s Why.Picture: two bettors, both start with a $1,000 bankroll, both place 100 bets over a period. Both win 52 of them, at average odds of 2.00…
Altan "Atabarezz" Atabarut·Aug 27Venture Capital Has a Bet-Sizing Problem. 🎰💸Maybe venture investors should learn something from professional gamblers.A response icon1A response icon1
