M Highlevel·1h agoWhy Prediction Markets Need You — And Why You Probably Won’t Make MoneyPrediction markets promise two powerful things: accurate predictions about the future and opportunities to make money. But beneath the…
Gaetan Lion·13h agoThe Prediction Markets did very well predicting California Propositions’ outcomes?I will not use the Brier score for assessing accuracy
HalfPoint.·16h agoAmerican Odds Are Lying to You (A Little)Convert odds to probabilities: it helps you choose sharper bets
Paul Puolakka·22h agoThe Midterm Election Test Is Over. The Bigger Test for Prediction Markets Is Just BeginningBy Paul Puolakka, industry CMO and Co-Founder
InReflectizbyOran F·22h agoPolymarket Hack: How a Hijacked DebugBear Script Drained $2.7MIn the Polymarket hack, the script’s URL never changed. The code behind it did. Here’s how a trusted monitoring tool drained 737 accounts…
Hyperlatent·1d agoHyperlatent Forecasting: Mapping the Impact of Asymmetric EventsThoughts about a new form of forecasting — written November 3, 2026, before polls closed.
Astra Quant·2d agoThe Coin Has No Memory: The Gambler’s Fallacy and How to Read Odds ClearlyYesterday we posted a riddle: “A fair coin landed heads 6 times in a row. What’s the chance of heads on toss 7?”
Automation Labs·2d agoPolymarket AI Bots 'Turn $1 Into $3.3M.' Median User Loses $2.The 2.48-million-user study the Claude-bot headlines leave out: 69% of Polymarket users end in the red, the top 1% of winners take 76.5%.A response icon1A response icon1
