Offseason Spec Target
2027 Dynasty Buy — Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B, BAL
If you have been playing fantasy baseball, particularly dynasty leagues, for a decent interval of time now there is a good chance that you are familiar with Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Odds are good that you remember him in a very particular way. As a failed prospect.
Drafted out of Oklahoma State, 128th overall, by the Minnesota Twins in 2021. CES was a compelling story. Played JUCO ball during 2019–2020 (his second season COVID shortened) and mashed, getting the opportunity to play at OK State in 2021, where he also mashed. The Twins pushed him to A ball right after the draft and he did well in a small sample. In 2022, he had 330 PAs in A+ and you guessed it, he mashed. He earned a call up to AA and in 13 games, if you can believe it. He mashed.
Well, the Twins traded him to Cincinnati at the deadline and he finished strong. So strong, in fact, that he entered the 2023 season as the Reds #5 prospect & a top 100 overall prospect. In AAA he kept on hitting and in 2023 he earned the call up. His MLB debut season was strong, finishing off a 241 PA rookie season with a .346 wOBA & 113 wRC+ while playing primarily 1B & some hot corner. In 2024 things got rocky for CES due to injuries. A hand/wrist injury cut his 2024 season down to just 29 games. Then in early 2025 he suffered from lower back issues that cost him much of the year and seemed to impact his performance upon return (.261 wOBA/62 wRC+ in 36 games).
After 10 games at AAA in 2026, the Red DFA’d him. Baltimore acquired him in April and let him plug away in AAA before giving him a post-All-Star break call due to injury attrition.
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I know that the preamble was long; but I think it is illustrative of the fact that for most of his minor league career it was clear CES can produce. When he was healthy at the Major League Level, he produced. He got a real opportunity in 2026, looked to be healthier, & it seems as if he can still produce. Baltimore gave him an opportunity to play lots of 3B and he rewarded them by posting a .358 wOBA, 133 wRC+, & played a decent third turning in a positive OAA and neutral DRS.
Preparing to talk about CES, I was a little hesitant because, to me, he seems like a very self-evident buy. But Baltimore feels like a cloudy playing time situation. They had so many injuries and had so many players looking for opportunity. I think CES is going to get a chance at 500 PAs. Cloudy playing time situations create buying opportunities.
CES made his Baltimore debut on 7/18/26 and from that date to the end of the season among all 3B he had the 6th highest wRC+ (133), 7th highest wOBA (.358), 6th highest ISO (.236), 5th highest batting average (.277), t-4th highest SLG (.513), and t-8th most HRs (11). Also, shoutout to O’s teammate Coby Mayo, he also finished in the top 5 of all of these — I’d call him a buy, but do not think anyone is really selling though.
CES’s thump isn’t really in question. The EV trio is 89.2/105.7/111.8 translates to roughly 50–55 power. QoC was good, his xDamage checked in at .424. The Hard-Hit rate was about dead on average which is a bit disappointing. But when your AirPull% flirts with being elite (28%) you can work around that HH.
My man is FREE swinger (60% swing rate goes crazy). He swings a lot; he chases a lot too. 46.4% of the time. Thankfully, the whiffs are just slightly above MLB average. Despite his free swinging, chasing ways, the hit tool isn’t bad. The Z-Con checked in at 83%, just over MLB average, and the Contact% of 73.6 is just below MLB average. This begs the question; if he can cut down the swing rate might we see better results? Perhaps cutting back too much could also lead to negative returns too. I am not certain…but it is something to consider.
What we have here is a genuine buying opportunity at a shallow fantasy position. Earlier I mentioned Coby Mayo being a buy as well, and I believe in that stance. I do not expect that the price to do so will be that “good,” but I also suspect we are seeing a vibe shift in the way people look at Baltimore. For a few years, you were paying something of a premium for O’s prospects. The faith in the organization drove prices up. There have been a slew of disappointments or underwhelming debuts now for their prospects. In fact, I think there could be buying opportunities surrounding many, non-Polar Bear, O’s.
Okay, I think that’s enough. Long story short; buy a share or two of Christian Encarnacion-Strand this offseason and bolster your weak 3B/CI rosters.
